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Dave's free NFL betting picks for Week 11 and expert predictions for 2024. His NFL best bets for Week 11 and his favorite plays. Who should you bet in Week 11?
Week 10 was not our best, unfortunately. We missed badly with picks on the Colts and Jets. The Colts had chances in their game against the Bills, but Joe Flacco just made too many mistakes. The Jets might have been our worst call of the season as they were throttled by an Arizona Cardinals team that is on the rise. Not the results we wanted. If there is a silver lining, though, we did get line movement in our favor last week. The results just weren’t there. It ultimately doesn’t mean much, but you always want to be on the correct side of any line movement and get a good closing line value (CLV). Process over results, but we’ve had some tough beats this year. The main takeaway from last week -- the Jets stink.
We’ve got eight weeks left in the regular season. Let’s get back to work and get ourselves back in the win column.
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New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Well, it’s the third week of the Jameis Winston experience. We got a good Winston game in a Week 8 upset over the Baltimore Ravens and a bad Winston game in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Chargers. It will be interesting to see which version shows up on Sunday, but this looks like a spot where Winston may not be asked to do too much.
The Saints have struggled defending the run this year. They rank 31st in defensive rush DVOA, per FTN Fantasy, and allow 141 rushing yards per game. That plays right into the Browns' offensive approach as head coach Kevin Stefanski traditionally likes to rely on a strong ground attack. The Saints got a big win last week after firing now-former head coach Dennis Allen, but this is a letdown spot following an emotional win over a division rival.
This is just an instance where I believe the wrong team is favored. The Browns have a rest advantage coming off their bye and should have an edge on both sides of the ball. Look for Cleveland to dictate the pace of the game with a healthy dose of Nick Chubb and pick up the victory.
Nick Chubb's 92 yard touchdown from 2018 🔥 pic.twitter.com/jBtICVz8hB
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) November 8, 2024
Pick: Browns +1.5 (-102) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.02 Units to Win 1 Unit
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
2024 just has not been the Bengals' year. They have lost several close games and could easily be 7-3 instead of 4-6, but the reality is that they are not a winning team right now. They have major holes on defense and the offensive line that have continually been exploited by opponents.
This week, the Bengals draw another tough matchup. They travel across the country to Los Angeles to play a Chargers team that has found its footing. Both offenses are about even, but the Chargers hold the real edge in this matchup with their defense. Los Angeles ranks eighth in defensive DVOA compared to 27th for Cincinnati, and that could prove to be the difference in this contest.
Cincinnati is coming off a prime-time loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Thursday. Normally, this is a spot where I would back the team coming off a prime-time loss, but this is just a bad matchup for the Bengals.
Expect Los Angeles to attack Cincinnati’s defensive front with a heavy dose of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and take some shots against a vulnerable Bengals secondary. The Chargers should take care of business and improve to 7-3.
Pick: Chargers Moneyline (-120) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1 Unit
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