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Dave's free NFL betting picks for Week 2, and expert predictions for 2024. His NFL best bets for Week 2 and his favorite plays. Who should you bet in Week 2?
Well the NFL season is underway, and we are back like we never left. There’s something oddly comforting that comes with the grind of scouring betting lines, player props, and setting fantasy football line-ups. I guess it’s just good to have football back.
Last week, we went 2-3 for -.75 units. Not exactly what we were hoping for, but we could have met worse fates. There's no time for groveling though. With Week 1 in the rearview mirror, all we can do is take note of what we learned and turn the page. Week 2 is a classic “overreaction” week. It’s traditionally been a good time to find values and bet accordingly.
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Houston Texans (-6) vs. Chicago Bears
While the Bears had a nice Week 1 victory, the reality is that they should have lost the game. It took a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and Will Levis doing his best Nathan Peterman impression for Chicago to come back and score the victory. Caleb Williams really struggled in his NFL debut and things don’t get any easier in this match-up.
The Bears also struggled to defend the run against Tennessee at times and will have their hands full trying to slow down Joe Mixon after he ran for 159 yards in Week 1.
Houston we have a problem...
Joe Mixon has over 100 yards and his first TD with the new squad🫡
(via @HoustonTexans)pic.twitter.com/HO3U7iL4iI
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 8, 2024
Chicago did finish seventh in defensive pass DVOA last week. However, C.J. Stroud is a different beast compared to Will Levis, and Houston has plenty of weapons at receiver. This is just a tough matchup for the Bears at this stage of the season.
I make this line closer to -8 so we are getting some nice value at this number. Expect the Chicago offense to continue to struggle with receivers Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen banged up.
It’s highly unlikely Chicago is bailed out by turnovers/special teams magic again. Houston should win comfortably and cover this number.
Pick: Texans -6 (-110) Bet MGM
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 unit
Green Bay Packers (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay will likely be without Jordan Love in this game. Malik Willis at quarterback is obviously a huge downgrade, but Green Bay should find success with a run-heavy approach against an Indianapolis defense that gave up 213 rushing yards to the Houston Texans last week.
While Willis leaves much to be desired as a passer, Indianapolis will need to account for him as a rusher. It’s likely Green Bay incorporates plenty of read-option plays for Willis and that adds another layer to the rushing attack to go along with Josh Jacobs.
The two keys to this game will be Willis attempting to put out some respectable output as a passer, and the Packers' defense slowing down the Colts' offense. The Packers forced Jalen Hurts into some bad decisions last week. They’ll have to find a way to do the same to Anthony Richardson and slow down the Indianapolis offense.
The Colts will likely have success on the ground and that could be the difference in this game, but Green Bay can keep it within this number. With Matt LaFleur not completely ruling out the possibility of Love playing, we could also catch some additional value as this line could completely flip if Love does suit up.
Expect a close, low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game with both teams struggling to consistently score points.
Pick: Green Bay +3 (-110) Bet MGM
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
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