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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/31/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
It's been a wild week in the NBA and after only two games last night, we get 13 games tonight as the rest of the league is back in action on a big ol' Friday night slate. Things continue to be pretty ugly in the NBA as we're firmly in the middle of the "Silly Season" so don't expect me to recommend any 15-point favorites or dogs tonight. But we do have a few games where both teams are going to be trying to win, and not rest players, or tank...and those are the games I am interested in tonight.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, March 31st.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 148-136-2
- Against the Spread: 76-67-2
- Game/Team Totals: 16-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 19-26
- Teasers: 34-16
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Los Angeles Lakers (-1) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (232 total)
As far as games that matter, this one matters quite a bit as both teams are battling for playoff spots and seeding. Right now, the Lakers are only a half-game behind the T-Wolves for the #8 seed in the West. And the difference between the 8 and 9 seeds is everything, considering you only need to win one game in the play-in tourney as the 7/8 seed and you need to win twice as the 9/10 seed.
Both teams are finally getting healthy and we should see all the stars on the floor tonight with LeBron, AD, KAT, and Anthony Edwards all probable.
Minnesota owns the season series 2-0, and I really like them here at home. Before losing to Phoenix the other night, they had reeled off four straight wins, and even in that Phoenix loss, KAT looked great. This T-Wolves team had high expectations at the beginning of the season and is finally looking like they might live up to their potential.
I have Minnesota favored by up to 3 points here, so I'll happily take better odds on them to win at home than the Lakers. This should be a great game, but I think the T-Wolves pull out a close one at home and continue their surge into the postseason.
The Pick: Wolves ML (-105)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Atlanta Hawks (-1) @ Brooklyn Nets (240.5 total)
I have struggled with totals this year, admittedly, but there are very few spreads that interest me tonight and a few totals that really popped in the model.
The last time these two teams met, they combined for 257 points. That's not what you want to hear when I am recommending the under. But the good news is that both of the prior meetings between these teams went well under this total.
A 240-point total is massive and while I will not underestimate the Hawks' ability to get into high-scoring games, I think this one could slow down and go under this big number. The Nets are the home team and they like to play significantly slower than Atlanta. And while they certainly can get drawn into high-scoring, high-paced games, I think they'll want to play their style of basketball tonight in order to try to pick up a much-needed win. Brooklyn badly wants to hold onto a top-6 seed and avoid the play-in, while Atlanta needs to win to hold off Toronto for the #8 seed.
If this game has a playoff-type atmosphere where each possession is valued a little more, I think that favors the under.
The Pick: UNDER 240.5 (-110), Good as low as 238
Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5) @ Indiana Pacers (236 total)
Now we are going OVER on this one as both teams like to play and loose, especially as the year winds to an end and they have less to play for. Indiana is resting their star guard, Tyrese Haliburton while OKC is resting theirs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. You might think that without those elite offensive players, these teams might take a hit in efficiency, but I think the pace of this game and lack of defense on both sides still favors the offense here.
We've seen both teams get into some incredibly high-scoring games in the last few weeks and I think this one has the potential to go nuclear. I have it pegged for over 240 points, but I am comfortable betting it as high as 238. Let's hope that both teams want to run and gun tonight and pad their stats without giving much thought to defending!
The Pick: OVER 236 (-110), Good as high as 238
Favorite Money Line Parlay - only two teams! MEM + PHI = (+102 DK)
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