RADIO
Everywhere you look there are upsets right now! Two top seeds just went down in the NCAA tournament last night and four of the five underdogs I wrote up in this piece on Wednesday either won or covered. Full disclosure, I bailed on the Lakers once LeBron James was ruled out, but they still covered against Philly at home. If you happened to bet Detroit or New York money lines on Wednesday in addition to their spreads then you would have made out really well. I was a tad disappointed in props, but hitting three of five there was still solid and led to a profitable evening overall. I feel obliged to warn you that things are going to get weird these final few weeks of the regular season, but we've come this far and there is no turning back at this point, right? Just be careful out there and be ready to adjust to breaking news during the day as we are seeing a lot of players on both tanking teams and playoff teams get rested down the stretch.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, March 25, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 149-139-2
- Against the Spread 74-65-2
- Over/Under 30-41
- Other/Props 45-34
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (+2) @ Atlanta Hawks (221 total)
I thought there would be more games I wanted to target on a Friday night slate, but after finishing my projections I found that there weren't too many I felt comfortable taking a stand on just yet. While the Pistons have been making us money as underdogs, I hesitate to bet them as favorites, even at home. And while I think the Jazz win, they've been playing poorly enough (and Charlotte has been playing well enough) that the spread is a bit higher than I'd like.
We have had some success with underdogs lately and so I'm going to roll with a somewhat unlikely underdog here in Golden State. Since losing their leader Steph Curry in the Boston game last Wednesday, they have dropped three of four but are coming off an upset win on Wednesday against Miami. What was impressive there was that the Warriors rested most of their regulars and their reserves played really well against Miami's top unit, ultimately winning by 14 and causing Jimmy "I'm the toughest guy to have ever played in the NBA except I am really not tough at all because I will sit out due to a cold" to go after his coach and teammate Udonis Haslem.
Anyway, back to this game against Atlanta where the Warriors find themselves as slight road underdogs. With their starters rested, I like their chances of pulling out a win against an Atlanta team that was just drubbed by the Pistons. Atlanta is still without John Collins and I've said it a bunch of times before - they are entirely too reliant on Trae Young and his streaky shooting. Golden State is the better defensive team and has more quality depth. I look for them to focus on shutting down Young and for their offense to continue to run through Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and the emerging Otto Porter. I hope you see this early in the morning because we have GSW at plus odds right now and I'm not sure how long that lasts.
The Pick: Warriors ML (+115)
Check back in this section later, I may add another pick if I see some line movement on other games.
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+2.5) @ Detroit Pistons (219 total)
The Wizards got annihilated last night by the Bucks and the worst part about that was both Giannis and Khris Middleton were rested so it was not even their full team. The Wizards are in full rebuild mode right now and have been without their second-best player (maybe their best player depending on how you feel about Kristaps Porzingis) as Kyle Kuzma continues to sit out.
Meanwhile, the Pistons continue to look improved and are they are coming off a really impressive 122-101 win against the Hawks. The most noticeable improvement for them has been on offense as rookie Cade Cunningham has been thriving in the second half and they're getting solid scoring from Jerami Grant, and Saddiq Bey on the wings as well as a nice boost from Kelly Olynyk and Marvin Bagley off the bench.
While I'm going to hold off on the Pistons spread for now, I do like this game total to go over for a few reasons. As I said, Detroit is playing better offensively and their recent production has been far better than their season-long numbers show. When you pair that with Washington playing some downright terrible defense and playing their second game in as many nights, we have the recipe for some points being scored. Washington's totals in back-to-backs have gone over in 9 of 11 games this season. I think Detroit does their part scoring the rock, we just need Washington to get their offense going here and I think we see this one go over 219. I have it pegged for around 222 and the recent trends support the over here.
The Pick: OVER 219 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers (221.5 total)
I thought there was no way I would go back to the Sixers under again, but here I am. My model likes it to go under by nearly eight points and it's the best-supported play by the data again, so why not? I know we got burned here the other day when the Sixers ended up beating Miami and going over by a few points, but that one seemed pretty fluky as the Sixers played faster and a little more carefree without Embiid and Harden.
Philly got back on track with a win over the Lakers on Wednesday, but let's remember a few things there. For one, the Lakers were without LeBron James and are a terrible team this year, especially on defense. And secondly, the Sixers still weren't able to put them away until late in the fourth quarter. The third thing is that 126-point outburst by the Sixers was the first time they had scored more than 120 points in a game since March 7th against Chicago.
The Clippers aren't as bad as the Lakers defensively and you could argue that they are worse offensively. Meaning I expect them to be able to slow down Philly better than the Lakers did but also not score as effectively. The projected pace of this one is below average and I could easily see this game end up being a "grind it out" win for Philly where they end up winning something like 110-104. I'm on the under here again, let's see if we can hit another total and I fully acknowledge that it's weird I am on two totals and only one spread right now (and slightly terrified as well.)
The Pick: UNDER 221.5 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update
Drew Eubanks over 24.5 points/rebounds (-105) - This is a great matchup for bigs and Eubanks is coming off one of his best outings as a starter for Portland. He's gone over this number now two games in a row and played 30+ minutes in each. If he continues to get 30 minutes, he should smash this prop. I have no issue betting him for a double-double either.
Rudy Gobert over 28.5 points/rebounds (-125) - Attacking Charlotte with big men has been one of the most profitable trends in the league this season. Gobert has settled down lately, but we've seen him crush great matchups as recently as last week when he had 35 P/R against the Clippers and 34 P/R against Chicago. If Whiteside misses tonight (he's currently questionable) then a few more minutes for Gobert certainly helps, too.
Jordan Poole over 3.5 threes (-125) - Poole has attempted 13 three-pointers in three of his last four games and has made four or more in all of those games! He's shooting the ball a ton to make up for the void left by Steph Curry in this offense and I expect that trend to continue tonight against Atlanta. As a 36.8% shooter from deep, I have him projected to make 4.4 threes on his current volume.
Spencer Dinwiddie over 3.5 rebounds (-135) - A little more juice here than I would like but Dinwiddie is guard who boards well and has grabbed four or more in five straight games including eight against the Wolves last week. If you don't like betting straights on these odds, toss him in a prop parlay!
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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