Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/21/22)

If you have a bad case of the "Mondays" because you had to go back to work after watching basketball for four days straight, I get it. I'm with you. But I mean - I watch basketball every day of the year all season long so give the NCAA tournament a break and tune into your favorite NBA game tonight instead. It's a pretty loaded Monday night slate and I smell some live underdogs! Fantasy basketball playoffs are in full swing and the real playoff race is struggle for seeding is going on as well with teams in both conferences trying to secure their spots. Yesterday I kept things simple and skipped props, going 2-1 overall and hitting the money line parlay, with the lone miss being Denver who absolutely didn't show up in the second quarter and the starters got benched at halftime. Then their coach put them back into the game late in the third and they made a run but still came up short. You win some and you lose some and so far I am still eight picks above .500 on the season which was my goal when I started writing this piece at the beginning of the year!

Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, March 21, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!


Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 140-132-2
  • Against the Spread 70-62-2
  • Over/Under 30-40
  • Other/Props 40-31
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.

(click to enlarge)


NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread

Utah Jazz (-1.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (229 total)

This is a really interesting game and believe it or not, I actually saw this spread open with the Nets being favored. Perhaps that reflected some questions as to whether or not the Jazz would have Mike Conley back tonight, but I'm pretty sure he was just being rested last night so that he could play tonight.

Meanwhile, the Nets will be without Kyrie Irving here as he still can't play home games due to the vaccine regulations. That leaves the Nets short-handed and the weight of the world on Kevin Durant's shoulders. KD has a few solid sidekicks, but without Kyrie I have Brooklyn rated well behind Utah even if they're still without their top shooter Bojan Bogdanovic.

The Jazz made me look foolish for picking against them last Friday when they demolished the Clippers and took care of the Knicks last night. If it weren't for them being on a back-to-back AND on the road, I would expect this spread to be much larger. I'm fine laying 1.5 here or even a few more points, I think Utah wins and can cover.

The Pick: Jazz -1.5 (-110) 


Toronto Raptors (+3.5) @ Chicago Bulls (224 total)

I'm on some road teams today and a couple of really live underdogs with the Raptors being the first. Toronto is coming off a huge win over the Sixers last night and they've got no time to celebrate as they head right to Chicago to take on another Eastern Conference playoff foe in the Bulls.

The most impressive thing about this Toronto team of late has been their defense. They limited the Harden/Embiid offense in Philly to 88 points and they've been a top-5 defensive unit over the last two weeks.

Other than an overtime loss to the Lakers last Friday, this team is 6-1 over their last seven games. They won last night without their lead guard Fred VanVleet, but he should be back in the lineup tonight giving them a formidable trio of VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam that should be able to keep pace with the Bulls big three of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic.

Being on the road is not an issue as Toronto is covering at a 65% rate as the road team this season. I like them with the points and I'll have a smaller bet on their money line, too. Anytime I like an underdog to win, I like building my bets out to where I have them to cover and to win separately, and if I really like them a lot I may even move the line even further with alternate lines and put a small amount on them giving some points.

The Pick: Raps +3.5 (-110) and Raps ML (+140)


Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (229.5 total)

This pick is highly contingent on Minnesota big man Karl-Anthony Towns being in the lineup tonight as he's currently questionable, but he's played through his injury which makes me think he'll likely be in the lineup tonight for a big game against a solid conference opponent.

I'm all over the T-Wolves as road dogs here in this one. While Dallas is not a team I like to pick on very often, they're very banged up right now and they lack the kind of depth that Minnesota has on their roster. Not to bury the lede here but the Wolves are the hottest team in the NBA right now having won nine of their last ten games while compiled at +18 net rating.

These teams have split the season series 1-1 but both of those games were all the way back in December. The Wolves' recent run has them looking like a very legit dark horse in the West as they've moved up into the sixth seed currently and are only 1.5 games behind Dallas for fifth.

At the end of the day, it's going to be Luka vs. KAT and I'm not sure either side can stop the other. But KAT has more help with D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards on the wings and Minnesota easily has the better bench. I'm riding the hotter team tonight and betting the wolves with the points and to win straight up.

The Pick: T-Wolves +3.5 (-110) and T-Wolves ML (+140)


NBA Totals Betting Picks

Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (215.5 total)

There is certainly a possibility that I am betting this trend to death by going back to it for a third straight game, but I really can't resist this under because Miami is a really good defensive team and the Sixers were just held under 90 points by Toronto last night as our under cruised to an easy hit.

Jimmy Butler should play in this one and the Heat have a major weapon to deploy against Joel Embiid in Bam Adebayo. Like I mentioned yesterday, the Sixers have slowed way down and aren't posting big numbers as they did in the first handful of games after Harden arrived.

This is yet another day where I wish I had my article finished earlier for you as this total opened up around 218 and has already been bet down. But there's still some room to go under even at 215.5 as I have this one pegged for around 210. I will probably only bet it down to 213 just to have some wiggle room.

The Pick: UNDER 217.5 (good down to 213) (-110)


Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.


NBA Prop Bet Picks


Saddiq Bey over 29.5 PRA (-120) - Jerami Grant is out and Bey is playing well right now. If you missed it, he just had a massive 51-point game against Orlando last week and Portland is terrible defensively, especially against the SF position.

Al Horford over 20.5 PRA (-125) - The Time Lord Robert Williams III is out tonight, meaning more rebounds and opportunities for the ageless wonder - Big Al Horford. OKC gets pummeled by big men and the only real risk here is a blowout. Horford averages around 22 PRA in games that Williams has missed and the matchup boost here is significant.

Darius Garland over 24.5 points (-130) - By now you should know we attack the Lakers with point guards! His P/A and PRA numbers are a bit high for my liking, but he's averaged 26.1 points per game in the ten games since he returned from his back injury in late February.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!


NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

The Pick: CLE/DET/CHA money line parlay (+155)


NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Chas McCormick4 hours ago

Injured Tuesday
Tanner Scott4 hours ago

Goes On Paternity List
Corey Seager4 hours ago

Says He's Fine After Suffering Forearm Bruise
Corey Seager5 hours ago

Exits Early With Right Forearm Contusion
Damian Lillard5 hours ago

Joining Heat Becoming "Unlikely"
Scottie Barnes6 hours ago

"Not Available" In Trade Talks
Buddy Hield7 hours ago

Pacers Want To Keep Buddy Hield
Chris Paul7 hours ago

Steve Kerr Still Undecided On Chris Paul's Role
Rhys Hoskins7 hours ago

Likely Won't Play This Year
Ryan Preece8 hours ago

Will Remain With Stewart-Haas Racing In 2024
Los Angeles Clippers8 hours ago

Clippers, Brodric Thomas Agree To Exhibit 10 Deal
Tyler Herro8 hours ago

Jazz, Bulls, Hornets, Nets All Interested In Tyler Herro
MLB8 hours ago

Mets-Marlins Postponed On Tuesday
Ben Simmons8 hours ago

Is '100 Percent Healthy' Entering Training Camp
8 hours ago

Dereck Lively II Will Get The Chance To Start
Matt Ryan9 hours ago

Timberwolves Ink Matt Ryan To Two-Way Deal
Garrett Mitchell10 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Activated
Carlos Correa10 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Adam Wainwright11 hours ago

Done For The Season
Christian Watson11 hours ago

Not Medically Cleared
Aaron Jones11 hours ago

Limited Again Tuesday
Saquon Barkley11 hours ago

Making Progress From Ankle Sprain
Luis Robert Jr.11 hours ago

Season Over Due To MCL Sprain
Ketel Marte12 hours ago

Feeling Better, Returns Against White Sox
Yandy DĂ­az12 hours ago

No Yandy Diaz For Rays
Randy Arozarena12 hours ago

Out For Rays On Tuesday
Torey Krug12 hours ago

Expects To Be Ready For Season Opener
Matt McLain12 hours ago

Out For Rest Of The Season
Filip Chytil12 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Artemi Panarin12 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Logan Couture12 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Opening Night
Easton Cowan13 hours ago

Impresses In Preseason Debut
NJ13 hours ago

Cory Schneider Announces Retirement From Hockey
Ilya Mikheyev13 hours ago

Leaves Practice Early Tuesday
Christian Watson15 hours ago

Plans To Play Against Lions
David Montgomery15 hours ago

Lions Optimistic About David Montgomery's Week 4 Status
Luis Robert Jr.17 hours ago

Season Could Be Over
Max Scherzer17 hours ago

Takes Another Step Forward
Rasmus Dahlin21 hours ago

Pleased To Link Up With Connor Clifton
Kailer Yamamoto21 hours ago

Posts Pair Of Power-Play Goals
Jakob Chychrun21 hours ago

Nets Two Goals In Win Over Toronto
Sean Couturier21 hours ago

Plays His First Game Since 2021
Jordan Eberle22 hours ago

Hopes To Remain In Seattle
Jakob Pelletier22 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Kyren Williams1 day ago

' Production Capped By Poor Play-Calling
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Makes The Most Of Week 3 Defeat
Brandon Crawford1 day ago

Expects To Play In Season Finale Sunday
Ja'Marr Chase1 day ago

Wrecks Rams, Closes Buy-Low Window
Patrick Sandoval1 day ago

Exits Early Monday With Right Oblique Tightness
Jon Gray1 day ago

Exits Early Monday With Right-Wrist Tightness
Joe Burrow1 day ago

Guts Out Calf Issue In Close Victory
A.J. Brown1 day ago

Explodes For 131 Yards Against Tampa Bay
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Gashes Buccaneers For 138 Total Yards
Mike Evans1 day ago

Snags Touchdown In Loss
Minnesota Timberwolves1 day ago

Trevor Keels Signs With Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors1 day ago

Rodney McGruder Joins Warriors
Atlanta Hawks1 day ago

Chris Silva Joins Hawks On Exhibit-10 Deal
Julius Randle1 day ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Joe Burrow1 day ago

Officially Active On Monday Night
Puka Nacua1 day ago

Active Against Bengals
Alvin Kamara1 day ago

Reinstated From Suspension
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

Seen At Monday's Practice
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

Held Out Of Monday's Practice
David Montgomery1 day ago

Listed As Limited
Christian Watson1 day ago

Listed As DNP Monday
Jaylen Waddle1 day ago

Still In Concussion Protocol
Joe Burrow1 day ago

Optimism Surrounding Joe Burrow's Monday Night Status
Garrett Mitchell2 days ago

Could Return Tuesday
Rafael Fiziev2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury To Cut Main Event Short
Rafael Fiziev2 days ago

Mateusz Gamrot Victorious After Rafael Fiziev Suffers Knee Injury
Michelle Waterson-Gomez2 days ago

Dominated In TKO Loss
AJ Fletcher2 days ago

Drops To 1-3 In The UFC
AJ Fletcher2 days ago

Bryan Battle Submits AJ Fletcher For Second Straight Finishing Win
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Speeding Penalty Costs Him Big At Texas
Francisco Alvarez2 days ago

Dealing With Finger Contusion
William Byron2 days ago

Earns Sixth Win Of Season At Texas
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Secures Third Straight Top-Five Finish At Texas
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Late Wreck Ruins Tyler Reddick's Race At Texas
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Delivers Big Value At Texas
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Championship Hopes Take Big Hit After Texas Wreck
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Overcomes Throttle Issue To Finish Second At Texas
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace "Gave it Away" At Texas, Finishes Third
Chris Buescher2 days ago

Has Another Strong Points Day At Texas
Kyle Larson2 days ago

On Playoff Hot Seat After Wrecking At Texas
Adam Fantilli2 days ago

Registers Two Assists In Preseason Debut
Trevor Van Riemsdyk2 days ago

Trevor van Riemsdyk Sustains Apparent Hand Injury
Travis Konecny2 days ago

"Banged Up"
Andrei Vasilevskiy2 days ago

Battling Minor Injuries
Mika Zibanejad2 days ago

Suffers An Upper-Body Injury
Kyle Palmieri2 days ago

Set For Re-Evaluation This Week
Deandre Ayton2 days ago

To Portland A Possibility?
Damian Lillard2 days ago

Bulls, Raptors Expressing Interest In Damian Lillard
Tim Hardaway2 days ago

Pacers Reportedly Not Interested In Tim Hardaway Jr.
Buddy Hield2 days ago

To Dallas?
Ricardo Ramos3 days ago

Submitted Early At UFC Vegas 79
Charles Jourdain3 days ago

Extends Win Streak To Two
Marina Rodriguez3 days ago

Scores One-Sided TKO Win At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige3 days ago

Falls Short Against Another Top-10 Opponent
Bryce Mitchell3 days ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 79
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Feels Good About His Car at Texas
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

a Very Strong Option at Texas
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Pegged as Favorite to Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar3 days ago

Looks Impressive Again at Texas
Zane Smith3 days ago

Slow In Practice and Qualifying at Texas
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

in Downgraded Equipment for Texas
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Will Start 25th At Texas
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

The Top Value Play On Sunday At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3 days ago

.'s Struggles At Texas To Continue This Weekend
Joey Logano3 days ago

Makes For A Nice Bounce Back Play At Texas
Clayton Keller4 days ago

Ready To Become 100-Point Player
Nicklas Backstrom4 days ago

Feeling At 100 Percent
4 days ago

Chauncey Billups Backs Scoot Henderson To Become A "Star"
Josh Green4 days ago

Aims To Become A Bigger Defensive Presence
Josh Hart4 days ago

Set To See Minutes As Power Forward
Cade Cunningham4 days ago

Jaden Ivey Believes Cade Cunningham Will "Shock" People
Mateusz Gamrot5 days ago

Seeking Victory In Seventh UFC Appearance
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Michelle Waterson-Gomez5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Fletcher5 days ago

Set To Showcase On Main Card
Bryan Battle5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 79
Ricardo Ramos5 days ago

Set For First Fight In Over A Year
Charles Jourdain5 days ago

Hoping To Bring UFC Record Above .500
Marina Rodriguez5 days ago

Gets A Rematch At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige5 days ago

Enters UFC Vegas 79 On Two-Fight Win Streak
Bryce Mitchell5 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back After First Career Loss