RADIO
Last night the NBA returned from a week-long break and whet our appetites for basketball action. Tonight, we get nine more games and our first glimpse at the James Harden era in Philly and the Malcolm Brogdon-Tyrese Haliburton experiment in Indiana. The only really big surprise last night was my beloved Cavaliers faltering against Detroit as they struggled to put away the Pistons without Caris LeVert and Darius Garland. The Grizzlies let me down as they dropped a close one to Minnesota, while the Bulls ended up being a push as they won by exactly four (hopefully, some of you got them at -3.5 or -3 as that line moved towards Atlanta during the day). Devin Booker did his thing, but the Joker fell a few stats shy of his prop.
I just want to briefly thank all of you for reading this column and my other NBA content. Your readership and support mean everything to me and I was in shock yesterday when it was announced I was selected as the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year. I promise that won't go to my head and you can continue to count on sound DFS, seasonal, and betting advice from me going forward here at RotoBaller!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 98-90-2
- Against the Spread 55-44-2
- Over/Under 22-33
- Other/Props 21-13
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Dallas Mavericks (+5.5) @ Utah Jazz (216.5 total)
We are going to start with my favorite underdog on the slate first. I want everyone to know that I have done a complete 180 when it comes to my opinion of this Mavericks team this season. Early in the year, they looked pretty ordinary and I thought they were a middling team in the West at best. But as the calendar turned over to January, something clicked for Dallas.
In the month of January, they went 12-4 and they followed that up with a 6-2 start to February before the break. They were playing so well that they cut bait on Kristaps Porzingis and sent him to Washington and brought in Spencer Dinwiddie to sure up their second unit.
Utah looked like the class of the West for much of the early part of the year, but suffered a myriad of injuries and really struggled for nearly a month. They've started to right ship of late (6-1 in February) but have still only played a few games with their entire rotation healthy and they looked very beatable in their loss to the Lakers right before the break.
I'm not saying Dallas will win this game outright, but they deserve to be a two or three-point underdog based on their stellar recent play. I'm backing them here even on the road and hoping we continue to see another peak Luka performance, not only as a scorer but as an elite distributor who is elevating his teammates.
The Pick: Mavs +5.5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs (-3) @ Washington Wizards (223.5 total)
You all probably know by now that I like the Spurs and I end up betting on them a lot. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn't. But this line seems off to me. Yes, the Spurs are on the road, but they've played some really solid basketball this year both before and after the Derrick White trade. The Wizards are left with only Kyle Kuzma and a bunch of prospects and retreads until Porzingis comes back (sidebar: Is Porzo technically a retread now, too?). There's no Beal, no Harrell, and no Dinwiddie in Washington.
Dejounte Murray is playing like the All-Star he is and Jakob Poeltl should feast on the Wizards' interior. I like the Spurs to cover here on the road and they've been pretty solid ATS (55% cover rate) as road warriors this year.
The Pick: Spurs -3 (-110)
Toronto Raptors (-2.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (226 total)
I was iffy about taking the Raptors today but I did just see news that Fred VanVleet plans to play in this game and that's all I needed to know. Toronto has handled the Hornets in both of their meetings this season, winning by 15 and 12 points in those games. Toronto is on the rise in the East and checks in with a solid 17-10 record ATS as the road team this season.
Charlotte has been fairly miserable over the last month and they are still without their veteran glue guy Gordon Hayward tonight. I expect the Raptors to roll here and put up a bunch of points in the process. The FVV, Siakam, Trent Jr. trio is just too much for Charlotte to handle and I look for Toronto to continue to exert their will over a weak Charlotte defense.
The Pick: Raptors -2.5 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Philadelphia 76ers (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (229 total)
I have been struggling with game totals this season after a solid early start, I won't lie. Recently, I have had more success with team totals and I'm constantly trying to tweak my model to incorporate recent samples to get better results. The reality is that these teams are constantly changing in their composition as players get injured, rested, and traded and it's really hard to feel good about predicting their scoring outputs on a nightly basis.
That being said, I am going to take a stab at it here based on a few trends. I like this game to be high-scoring tonight with the Timberwolves having a really good offense and a relatively poor defense. The Sixers will be starting James Harden which should be a big boost for their offense and likely a slight detriment to their defense (sorry, not but I'm not sorry - James Harden is not a good defender).
The real kicker here is that the T-Wolves are on a back-to-back as they are coming off a big win against Memphis last night. With no rest days this season, Minnesota has gone over their game total six out of nine times this season by an average of 3.6 points. Over the last ten games, they are allowing 117.4 points to opposing teams, too. I have a hard time believing they will be able to stop Harden and Embiid tonight on no rest. If they win, they are going to have to outscore the Sixers in a shootout. So rather than betting the spread or the game total, I've settled on the over on the Sixers team total.
The Pick: Sixers team total over 115.5 points (-120)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update:
Pascal Siakam over 37.5 PRA (-125) - Siakam has 43 and 45 PRA in two starts against the Hornets this season. He could soak up more stats now with OG Anunoby now out for the foreseeable future.
Mo Bamba over 2.5 blocks/steals (+155) - The Rockets are allowing 1.3 more blocks/steals to opposing centers than league average and Bamba already averages 2.4 combined blocks/steals per game in 26 minutes. If he plays solid minutes tonight, I think he gets three or more "stocks" in this matchup.
Reggie Jackson over 6.5 assists (-150) - There is a lot of juice on this number, but I would grab it at 7.5, too, if it moves here before game time. Jackson has eight or more assists in five straight games and is coming off a 14-assist game against Houston in his last game. The matchup is solid here as the Lakers have been a team to target with point guards this season as well.
Here's my favorite three-team ML parlay for tonight. This one has some nice odds as none of these teams are all that big of favorites.
The Pick: Spurs/Heat/Raptors ML Parlay (+316)
Check out some of the boosts and super boosts that Caesar's is offering as pre-packaged parlays.
- Sixers/Mavs/Lakers ML Parlay (+950)
- Doncic, Murray, and Butler all over 24 points each (+800)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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