RADIO
Monday's slate got funky real fast and I had to void two of my three picks as I had zero confidence in the Cavs covering once they announced Darius Garland was going to be out and they barely eked out a win. Then Miami also ruled out Jimmy Butler so I lost them as live dogs and they promptly went out and got thrashed by the Celtics.
My hopes were then pinned on the Portland Trail Blazers against OKC and I was amazed to watch them waste a double-digit first-half lead and promptly get handled by OKC in the second half of that game. My buddy and our resident CSGO analyst Koby Hanson warned me against betting on his beloved Blazers, but I didn't listen to him and they let us down.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, February 2nd, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 69-69 (don't giggle)
- Against the Spread 43-38
- Over/Under 20-27
- Other/Props 6-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Denver Nuggets (+3) @ Utah Jazz (222.5 total)
THIS IS AN INCREDIBLY TOUGH CARD. One thing I really hate is when I finish going through my model and projecting the spreads and then I see them all line up almost exactly with Vegas. If there isn't an edge to be had, I'm not all that interested in betting a game just for the heck of it. But this is a game where I think we have an angle.
The numbers here suggest the Jazz should be favored heavily at home and there aren't many trends that are going to help my case for the Nuggets. They've been bad on back-to-backs and they were just hammered by Minnesota last night. However, let's consider which Jazz team they are taking on tonight for a second.
Utah will be without their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. They've also lost an important glue guy off the bench in Joe Ingles for the season. This team has been ravaged by injuries and COVID protocols and after starting off the season with one of the best records in the NBA, they've now dropped 11 of their last 13 games and five straight. Yes, the schedule has been brutal for Utah, but their last quality win was against Denver back on January 16th as the only other team they've beaten in that stretch is Detroit.
The Jazz are 3-0 against Denver this season, but they have yet to face them without BOTH Mitchell and Gobert. The Nuggets starters didn't play in the fourth quarter last night so they're not going to be as tired as usual. I look for Nikola Jokic to put this team on his back and carry them to a win as he should have his way on the interior tonight. Consider that Denver had won five straight before their loss last night and has been trending in the right direction with an 8-2 record over their last ten games before Monday's loss.
The Pick: Nuggets +3 (-110 DK Sportsbook), Nuggets ML (+125 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5) @ New York Knicks (217 total)
Some of the value on this pick has been eaten up as it opened up around 219 and has quickly dropped a few points already. The under here is one of the top-rated plays in the model today. The Knicks burned me last week when they were able to hang with the Bucks in a high-scoring game, but this is still a below-average offense and a team that plays much slower than average this year.
The Grizzlies are good and at their best when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are executing in the half-court. I think Memphis wins here but I'm not all that interested in the spread unless it creeps down closer to two. Instead, let's bank on these teams grinding it out and going under the total which I think has a really good chance of happening as this game projects for the second-lowest pace on the evening and both teams play pretty solid defense.
The Pick: UNDER 217 (good down to 215.5), -110 DK Sportsbook
Oklahoma City (+12) @ Dallas Mavericks (208 total)
Here's another spot that you need to jump on pretty quickly as this total is dropping. Both of these teams are in the top-3 in unders this season, but for different reasons. Dallas goes under a lot because they're a slow-paced offensive team that plays pretty solid team defense, while OKC often goes under because they're offensively challenged with very few reliable scorers.
The Thunder are without their best scorer and playmaker again today with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sitting out, so I think they'll struggle to score here. Even in their win against Portland on Monday, they only totaled 98 points, which was solid for them but well below the league average of 107 points per game.
These teams have met three times already this season with those games totaling 181, 187, and 206 total points. The combination of the slow projected pace, Dallas's defensive prowess, and the OKC offensive struggles I think this game could easily go under, too. The projected total isn't way under the Vegas total but this game has the strongest season-long trend going for it. I would just grab it pretty quickly as I could see it continue to fall throughout the day.
The Pick: UNDER 208 (good down to 206) -110 DK Sportsbook
No teasers or parlays today, this is a really tough card with spreads and I'm not sure how many favorites I really trust with money line bets.
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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