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It was a pretty sweet week of betting last week and with the extra time that I had because of the way football was winding down to just one final game, I was able to put out something every day last week. I hope you enjoyed last night's Super Bowl and cashed some bets, but now it's time for the NBA to take center stage again and we have a solid 9-game slate on tap tonight. Oh, and it's Valentine's Day so make sure you let that certain someone know just how special and important they are to you!
With the All-Star break coming up at the end of the week, I'm going to publish this piece today through Wednesday and then I'll be enjoying some time off with family and starting to prepare for baseball season, too. Here at RotoBaller, we have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! If they are live in your state, follow the directions here to create a new account and get up to 1500 dollars in matching funds as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access! Going forward, all of the spreads, totals, and props in this article will be referencing the odds that you can find at Caesar's.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, February 14th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 91-76-1
- Against the Spread 53-39-1
- Over/Under 22-31
- Other/Props 16-6
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ Chicago Bulls (234.5 total)
I have to be honest I am a bit leery about going back to the well too many times here with the Spurs, but they certainly have been impressive of late even after dealing away Derrick White at the deadline. San Antonio is coming off a 25-point beat down of the Hawks in Atlanta and then a 10-point win against the Pelicans in New Orleans.
They'll have their work cut out for them tonight if they are to keep this winning streak going as they come into Chicago. But this Bulls team feels vulnerable as they're going to be without Zach LaVine and continue to be without their other main guards Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Chicago limped to a five-point win against a bad OKC team on Saturday and their defense has really taken a hit over the last month.
Enter Dejounte Murray and company. Murray is an unstoppable force (more on him in a bit) and this Spurs team is loaded with good young players like Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, and Devin Vassell. I'm willing to back a red-hot underdog here against a wounded Bulls team, even on the road. If you're feeling really brash, grab the San Antonio money line, but I think taking the points is the safest bet as they stand a great chance of being in this game til the end, if not winning.
The Pick: Spurs +5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors (-6) @ L.A. Clippers (221 total)
The Warriors pulled off a close win against the Lakers on Saturday night but needed two missed LeBron James free throws to do it. I think that's more of a testament to the improved play of the Lakers recently than it is an indictment of the Warriors. Golden State had dropped two in a row before that, but I still view them as a top-5 team in the NBA based on the entire season's worth of data.
They're still missing Draymond Green, but this team is formidable on offense and defense even without him and Klay Thompson has added some real depth to this roster by allowing Jordan Poole to shift to the bench and lead a really good second unit. Who knows if we will ever see Paul George or Kawhi Leonard again this season, but all we need to know for tonight is that the Clippers continue to be without their stars and will also be missing the recently-acquired Norman Powell, too, as he broke a bone in his hand.
A team led by the likes of Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris Sr. doesn't inspire too much fear in my heart, nor should it scare the Warriors. They did manage a win against Dallas on Saturday but had dropped three straight games before that. A mainly-healthy Golden State team is significantly better than this version of the Clippers and I'm surprised to see the spread at only six points and happy to take it. The trends back the Warriors here, too, as they're still one of the better teams in the league ATS this season despite some of their recent losses.
The Pick: Warriors -6 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
No totals from me today. Yes, the chart likes a few unders quite a bit, but I couldn't find enough other data to support those picks, and my track record with totals has been rough this year. Simply said, I don't have enough confidence in those picks to officially endorse them here as "best bets"
NBA Prop Bet Picks
So the Wizards will continue to be without their biggest acquisition at the deadline tonight - Kristaps Porzingis. They shut down Bradley Beal for the year with an injury and dealt away their starting point guard in the KP deal when they sent Spencer Dinwiddie to Dallas.
Those moves have resulted in a huge role for their lone remaining young star player Kyle Kuzma. The lack of a true point guard in the lineup has meant more passing and assists for Kuz while no Montrezl Harrell in Washington has helped lead to more rebounding opportunities, too. In the two games that Washington has played since the Dinwiddie deal, Kuzma has registered 38 and 37 PRA (points, rebounds, and assists). His number at Caesar's tonight is only 36.5 and the matchup here against Detroit is ideal as they've allowed 2.5 more PRA to small forwards than league average this season.
The Pick: Kyle Kuzma over 36.5 PRA (-105)
I'm going to keep riding DJM until the wheels fall off or until the books catch up! He absolutely demolished his PRA props in the last two wins for the Spurs and is showing everyone why the Spurs felt like they could afford to deal White to Boston. This kid is special, and he's going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis with total control of this offense going forward.
The Bulls have been gashed by lead guards lately. Over the last two weeks, they have allowed the fifth-most PRA to the point guard position and the game environment here (high spread, low total) is one that we should love for DFS and prop bets. Caesar's has Murray at 39.5 and that's probably a few whole points too low. I think he goes over 40 again tonight with ease, so let's keep smashing this prop.
The Pick: Dejounte Murray over 39.5 PRA (-115)
No Teasers or Parlays tonight! But check out some of the boosts and super boosts that Caesar's is offering as pre-packaged parlays.
Knicks + Nuggets + Warriors = +160
Dejounte Murray + Kyle Kuzma + Stephen Curry to score 25+ points each = +1200
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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