RADIO
After only three games last night in the NBA, we are back with a beefy 11-game slate tonight and some big-time matchups, too. Some of my favorite games to watch tonight will be the upstart Kings taking on the Bucks in Milwaukee as well as the Boston Celtics (the league's only 20-win team) heading to Phoenix to battle the Suns.
It's a large slate, but it was tough trying to find spots that I absolutely love today as my projections ended up really close to the spreads and totals for these games this morning. I will probably end up with more action tonight in props and DFS than sides and totals. Speaking of props, if you love player props, then consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something each evening Monday through Friday, too. But for now, I am just tackling game totals and sides.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, December 7. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 50-62
- Against the Spread: 24-28
- Game/Team Totals: 8-14
- Moneyline Parlay: 6-13
- Teasers: 12-6
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+2) @ New York Knicks (232 total)
We have a bunch of games with relatively wide spreads today, and I can't quite justify laying all those points or backing the dogs in most of those situations. So I am actually targeting the two tightest spreads on the slate with some money line bets tonight instead.
The Hawks are slight road dogs here to the Knicks in a game that should be an entertaining one between two "mid-tier" teams in the East. Every time I think Atlanta is emerging as a top-five team, they suffer a setback, like when they lost to Oklahoma City the other night. And every time I am ready to bury the Knicks as nothing more than mediocre, they end up pulling out a big win, like when they held the Cavs to 81 points in a big victory last weekend.
I think Atlanta is the better overall team if we look at the full season sample thus far, but at the same time, they are dealing with injuries right now with two starters (John Collins and DeAndre Hunter) out of the lineup. One nice thing for them, however, has been the emergence of some of their young players who are filling in - Jalen Johnson, A.J. Griffin, and Jarrett Culver - who have all played well recently.
The biggest boon to this team lately though has to be the return of their super-sub sixth-man extraordinaire, Bogdan Bogdanovic. Bog-Bog looked great in his second game of the season with 17 points against OKC and is going to be a difference-maker for this team as he can help take the pressure off Trae Young and Dejounte Murray as both a scorer and playmaker.
The Knicks won three of four matchups last season, but Atlanta has beaten them two times in a row now as they won the final meeting of last year and the first meeting this year back in November, 112-99. I will take the better odds here on the team that I think is better overall, and if you like narratives, then you know that Trae Young has a history of showing out at MSG going back a few seasons when the Hawks eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs that year.
The Pick: Hawks ML (+110)
Boston Celtics (-1.5) @ Phoenix Suns (231 total)
This is the final game of the evening tonight, slated to tip at 10:00 PM EST, and I hope I can stay awake for it because it should be must-watch TV. The status of Chris Paul is still unknown as he is still listed as questionable, though he has been now for over a week and has yet to return from a lengthy absence. You'd think this would be a game that he might be targeting for a return, but that's just total speculation and we probably won't know until later this afternoon at the earliest.
What we do know is that Boston gets both Al Horford and their sixth-man Malcolm Brogdon back in the lineup tonight and they were able to win on Monday for us without either of them against a solid Toronto team. In fact, the Celtics (20-5 on the year) have lost only twice now since November 2nd, reeling off win after win. I'm pretty enamored with them and it's not just being in awe of the MVP-type numbers that Jayson Tatum is putting up. Jaylen Brown is rolling, too, and the trio of Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt have been tremendous.
The Suns are coming off a disappointing blowout loss to the Mavs and will have their work cut out for them here with Boston, a team that simply doesn't have many weaknesses. Phoenix is really good, but they are pretty thin right now and have had to dust off players like Dario Saric, Josh Okogie, and Ish Wainwright to play meaningful minutes for them as they have been without Cameron Johnson, CP3, and Torrey Craig. I simply can't get away from Boston here, but I'll not risk things by laying 1.5 points, I'll just grab the money line for slightly worse odds in case this one comes down to a single point. Give me the Celtics, and let's keep riding their incredibly hot start to the year.
The Pick: Celtics ML (-120)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Sacramento Kings (+6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (235 total)
This game should be awesome! The Kings are legit and if you haven't had the pleasure of watching this season, try to tune in to this one and see for yourself. I think they can probably cover here, and they have a lot of trends backing them, but I am a bit too nervous to bet them outright here as underdogs considering the Bucks have been great at home and now rounding into form with Khris Middleton back in the lineup.
I'll toss the Kings in our underdog teaser instead and I do think they keep this one close, even if they aren't able to pull off the upset. At first glance, I thought this total looked a bit low considering how good both teams are on offense, but the numbers actually tell a different story and I have it projected considerably lower than 235 (around 230).
We should have some above-average pace in this game, but what we will also have is some pretty good defense on both sides. Over their last 10 games, the Bucks rank third in defensive rating while Sacto comes in at fifth. Both teams have been allowing fewer than 110 points per game to opponents, which is well below the league average.
The competitive nature of this game (again I think it stays close) should force both teams to value every possession a bit more and I think it slows this game down a bit. While the Kings have been playing the fastest of anyone in the league, the Bucks play a bit slower than the league average and I could see them dictating the pace here at home and trying to play more half-court offense than getting out in transition.
I am backing the under here and I think we see it dip a few more points as the day goes along. I am just hoping for a close, entertaining game and just because I am on the under, it doesn't mean I won't be invested in some props here or playing guys like Giannis in DFS (I think he's the stud to pay up for on the slate).
The Pick: UNDER 235 (-110)
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I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: UTA + NOP + BKN +TOR = (+175 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: SAC +11, OKC +11.5, ATL +6.5 = (+150 DraftKings)
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