RADIO
After a fairly successful weekend of wagering on the NFL (which hasn't been all that easy this year), I'm ready to slide back over to covering the NBA today for this solid eight-game slate of action. I am going with a relatively small card here on this smaller slate as there are only a few spots that really jump out at me once I finished crunching the numbers.
If you love data and player props, then consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something each evening Monday through Friday, too. But for now, I am just tackling game totals and sides.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, December 5.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 48-59
- Against the Spread: 23-27
- Game/Team Totals: 7-14
- Moneyline Parlay: 6-12
- Teasers: 12-5
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-1.5) @ Toronto Raptors (227.5 total)
Boston let me down on Friday, but I probably should have seen it coming with Miami getting Jimmy Butler back and Jayson Tatum playing out of his mind so many nights in a row that he was bound for a reality check. But Boston is still, in my mind, the best team in the NBA based on how they've played so far this season, and all the data backs that up, too.
Toronto is finally getting healthy with Pascal Siakam back in the lineup and they are never a team that I want to underestimate by any means. But I don't think they're in the same league as Boston, especially with Fred Van Vleet really struggling with his game recently.
I have Boston projected to win here by 4-5 points, making them an easy bet for me. This is the first time these teams have met so we should get a better idea of just how close they are after this one, but I think Boston has some separation from most of the rest of the field (other than maybe Milwaukee, Cleveland, and a healthy Philly) in the East.
Let's go Green...
The Pick: Celtics -1.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns (+3) @ Dallas Mavericks (222 total)
I am a bit baffled here as to why the Suns are underdogs. Yes, the Mavericks were the team to bounce them in the playoffs last year and did beat them earlier in the season. But these teams have been trending in very different directions over the last few weeks, with Phoenix winning seven of their last eight (their only blemish being a one-point loss to Houston last Friday) and the Mavericks having lost five of their last seven.
I will give Dallas some credit, though, those two wins include a win over the Warriors and they debunked the myth that they can't win on the road by pounding the Knicks by 20 on Saturday.
Still, Phoenix is better at every position that Luka Doncic doesn't play and Chris Paul hasn't been ruled out of this game yet. The Mavericks haven't been all that good at home ATS, either, as they rank dead last with a 3-8-1 record.
I like Phoenix to win, but I also think Luka is a magician who can pull off miracles on any given night, so I am sticking with the spread here and taking the points.
The Pick: Suns +3 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
OKC Thunder (+6) @ Atlanta Hawks (232 total)
This should be a fun game tonight between two teams that like to push the pace. I have it projected as the second-fastest game behind only Indiana-Golden State. The Thunder have been a nice surprise this season and I was tempted to take them with the points here, but with Trae Young returning to the lineup for the Hawks, I will pass (though they are going in the teaser).
Both teams have been great at hitting overs this season, with OKC having the best record in the NBA at 16-7 and a massive +9 point differential. Atlanta is 13-10 on overs, too, giving me some confidence that they'll do their part to play fast and loose, too. I know 232 seems like a high total (and it is), but it's definitely a manageable one here for these teams and I think the fact that it should be a competitive game (I'd be really surprised if OKC was blown out) only helps our cause as well.
I am going with the over here and let's hope that both of these teams continue to play fast and efficient basketball on offense.
The Pick: OVER 232 (-110), playable up to 234.5
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: GSW + MIL + PHI = (+100 DraftKings)
4-point Underdog Teaser: PHO +7, OKC +10 = (-110 DraftKings)
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