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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/2/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
I tweeted out yesterday that sometimes you just get everything wrong, and that's pretty much what happened on Wednesday as my ML parlay was the only thing to hit from the entire article. Those nights are tough because I spend a considerable amount of time researching these games from a number of different angles, but they're going to happen as a bettor with the variance in sports it's inevitable. I was happy to take a day off yesterday and am ready to tackle this 11-game Friday night slate with you today.
I was 5-3 on props on Wednesday and if you're looking for NBA player props, consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something each evening Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 2. Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 46-54
- Against the Spread: 21-24
- Game/Team Totals: 7-14
- Moneyline Parlay: 6-11
- Teasers: 12-4
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Orlando Magic (+10) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (216.5 total)
I joked on Twitter on Wednesday night that I suppose I have to pick against the Cavs every night to ensure that they win since they blew the doors off the Sixers and won by 20+ after I dared to bet against them. This Cavs team proved me wrong, they can withstand adversity and are apparently not wearing down with injuries after all. They still won't have Jarrett Allen and it looks like probably not Kevin Love either, but Caris LeVert is back and playing well off the bench while their trio of Mitchell-Garland-Mobley should be enough to handle a Magic team that has been one of the NBA's worst over their last 10 games.
No WCJ or Jalen Suggs for Orlando and the Cavs have been the best team in the league at home ATS with an 8-1 record and a 12-point margin of victory. Ten points is a lot, but I look for Cleveland to take care of business here and win going away.
The Pick: Cavs -10 (-110)
Washington Wizards (-3.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (221.5 total)
I could come back after a losing night and only make a few picks, hoping to hit them and brag about an undefeated night. Or I could come back and make FIVE ATS picks, and lay a bunch of points on favorites! I'm never one to back away from a challenge and I am going to go where the data directs me.
Washington isn't a great team, but they're perfectly average and they finally have the majority of their main rotation guys healthy including their starting lineup. Porzingis is playing well right now as well as Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma. The Hornets are 3-7 over their last ten with the third-worst overall net rating (right ahead of Orlando) and are still without their top two players LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. I think the Wizards win here behind the strong play of their big three and can cover a relatively small 3.5 spread. They're 2-0 against Charlotte this year and have covered this number in both wins.
The Pick: Wizards -3.5 (-110)
Miami Heat (+8) @ Boston Celtics (225.5 total)
I want to bet on this game one way or another. I like the over here, too, as we just saw these two teams combine for 255 points on Wednesday. But Jimmy Butler could return to help tighten up that Miami defense, but will he bring enough to the table to prevent them from getting slapped by the Celtics again? Boston is 2-0 against the Heat this year and they are playing the best basketball of any team in the league (not even debatable, their stats are miles ahead of everyone in just about every category).
Jayson Tatum is the new front-runner for MVP and can you even argue against that? (Luka has been great, too, his team though...not so much). The numbers here back Boston at home by double-digits. I am not simply betting on Wednesday's outcome and I recognize that if Butler returns that can really change Miami's potential to compete, but I simply think the Celtics are playing too well right now to be slowed down by anyone.
The Pick: Celtics -8 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans (-7) @ San Antonio Spurs (233 total)
The Pelicans are going to welcome back C.J. McCollum to the lineup tonight, but will still be without Brandon Ingram. I'm not sure missing Ingram will matter too much in this one as they get to feast on the Spurs, who have the worst L10 numbers of any team in the NBA with a -14 net rating and a 1-9 record in those games.
You all know I like the Pels, and even though they have burned me a few times, I feel like trusting them here, especially with CJ coming back to the lineup. I have them projected to win by 12+ tonight, so laying 7 points isn't all that much (especially considering we are laying 10 with the Cavs, 8 with the Celtics, and...well just wait for this next bet!)
Zion might eat the entire Spurs front court for dinner tonight and San Antonio is still without Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poeltl.
The Pick: Pels -7 (-110)
Houston Rockets (+11.5) @ Phoenix Suns (230 total)
At this point, you probably think I am crazy with all these big favorites and I am about to get a little crazier yet. I have only taken one team as a double-digit favorite in the NBA this season and I got away with it when Boston beat Charlotte by 20+. I have this spread projected (somewhat conservatively) at 15 points. Yes, FIFTEEN points. The Rockets were just demolished by Denver as double-digit dogs two games in a row and continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. And they happen to be running into a red-hot Phoenix team and the hottest individual player in the NBA right now - Devin Booker, who just dropped 51 points in his last game.
Phoenix is firing on all cylinders and beat this Houston team by 13 in their first matchup. Like Cleveland and Boston, they're fantastic at home and the numbers all point to a dominant win for them here in this spot. Let's get crazy and finish off the night with another huge home favorite!
The Pick: Suns -11.5 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
NO TOTALS TODAY!
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: CLE + MIL + PHO + BOS + NOP = (+208 DraftKings)
4-point Underdog Teaser: ATL +6, TOR +6.5 = (-110 DraftKings)
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