RADIO
We have a big slate tonight, with 24 teams and 12 games in action. It's an interconference kind of night, with eight of the 12 games being East vs. West. In terms of how to think about these games, I still suggest applying analytical reasoning, but it's a fun tidbit.
I had a good week last week, going 5-1 in my two articles. My only loss was the over in the Pistons-Blazers game last Wednesday night. The total ended at 211, just four points off the over 214.5. It brought my season record to 7-3, and hopefully, this is just the start. I've yet to hit a ML parlay or teaser, but I focus more on the straight picks.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Monday, November 6th.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads
Philadelphia 76ers (-11.5) vs Washington Wizards (227.5 total)
The Sixers have been one of the NBA's best teams to start the season. Philly didn't let the James Harden noise bother them, and reigning MVP Joel Embiid once again looks dominant. Now Harden is gone for good, and honestly, the Sixers players probably exhaled when they saw the news. Tyrese Maxey looks like an all-star. Tobias Harris continues his solid play. Kelly Oubre has scored 23+ in three of five games. The Sixers are a top-ten scoring team and shoot it well from deep. They have also been a top-five defensive team in terms of defensive rating and opponent points per game.
On the other side, the Washington Wizards have not been very good. They are a decent-scoring team but are getting torched on defense. Washington has a bottom-five defense in opponent points in the paint per game. Opponents are also shooting 68.2 percent from less than five feet. That is never a good recipe for success against a player like Joel Embiid.
Philadelphia is 4-1 on the season but 5-0 ATS according to team rankings. Last season, Philly was the third-best team ATS at 58-38-2. As a home favorite, they were 22-15-1. Nick Nurse's team is 3-0 ATS as a home favorite to start the 2023-24 season. I expect that trend to continue.
The pick: Sixers -11.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Boston Celtics (-4.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (226.5 total)
The Boston Celtics look amazing. Coming into this game with a 5-0 record, they lead the NBA in PPG, are in the top five in field goal percentage, second in three-pointers made per game, and are in the top ten for three-point percentage. Unsurprisingly, they also hit their freebies, shooting 84.1 percent from the line, right near the top of the league. Boston has the best-rated offense, a top-eight defense, and the best net rating by a healthy margin.
With all that being said, the Celtics seem like the obvious pick, right? That very well could hold true by Monday night, but I'm going the opposite way with Minnesota.
I like what I've seen from the Timberwolves this season. They lost a very close game on the road to the Toronto Raptors to start the season and have won three of four since. The Timberwolves come into this game as winners of two straight, crushing the Nuggets and Jazz, both at home. Add in the 106-90 win over the Heat in game two, and Minnesota is 3-0 at home with a +65 win differential.
In Target Center, they have held their three home opponents to a 39.4 field goal percentage and 91.3 points per game. Last season, Minnesota was 22-19 at home, but they were 12-6 as home underdogs, according to team rankings.
The Timberwolves also have the number-one-rated defense in the NBA.
I like them with the points in this spot.
The pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (-115 BetMGM)
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
Miami Heat (-1) vs Los Angeles Lakers (222.5 total)
LeBron James takes on his former Heat team in South Beach. Neither of these teams has been overly impressive on offense this season. Miami is in the bottom five in points per game; the Lakers are just outside the top 15. Both teams are in the bottom five for field goal attempts. Miami is in the bottom ten for field goal percentage, while the Lakers are around 15th. Needless to say, neither team is lighting it up on offense, and both don't take a ton of shots.
How about three-pointers? LA is in the bottom five for threes per game. Miami is better, but still outside the top ten. The two teams are both in the bottom ten for three-point attempts, so there's a lot of reliance on taking and making while being efficient.
Miami is taking a lot of field goals late in the shot clock and not shooting particularly well. They are attempting the most two-point field goals with 0-4 seconds left on the shot clock and only hitting 36.8 percent of them. Los Angeles has a bit of a quicker trigger, but their shooting percentages are nothing to marvel over. Both of these teams are in the top ten in two-point field goal percentage attempted. You're also looking at two bottom 15 teams in pace.
I like the under in this one and hope to see my under record move to 4-0 on the season.
The pick: Under 222.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Favorite ML Parlay: MIL + CHI + DEN (+244 DK)
Favorite Teaser: DET +12.5 - OKC +9 - MIN +10 (+140 FD)
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