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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/29/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props
Pool play for the In-Season Tournament has concluded and the final eight teams are set to duke it out next week. This experiment by the NBA has been interesting as players have largely had a positive reaction to it and it has created some early-season intensity in games that we don't always see.
Next week's schedule is going to be wacky with only a few games on nights that the tourney is taking place and then a bunch of games taking place on Wednesday and Friday with the teams that didn't qualify. But for today, it's just a normal old 7-game slate.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, November 29. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS!
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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals
L.A. Clippers (-1.5) @ Sacramento Kings (231.5 total)
The Kings pulled out a huge victory last night as they pulled away in the final seconds from the Warriors. This Kings team when De'Aaron Fox is in the lineup is really special and I am certainly not betting against them tonight, even on a back-to-back as this should be another close game and a battle between good teams.
But perhaps the Kings will have some tired legs tonight that will affect their efficiency on offense. They have only played one B2B this year but went 15 points under their total in that game.
When you pair that with the fact that the Clippers are the team that goes under their total the most often of any team in the league (73%), I think we have a strong case for an under tonight. I have this total projected closer to 224-225 points.
The pick: UNDER 231.5 total points (-110 DraftKings)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Philadelphia 76ers (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (231.5 total)
The Sixers continue to plow their way through the competition on the way to a 12-5 record through the first month. Even after a few tough losses to Cleveland and Minnesota, Philly bounced back with big wins over OKC and a 40-point blowout of the Lakers.
30 PTS | 11 AST | 11 REB
a triple-double kinda night for @JoelEmbiid. @PALottery pic.twitter.com/4D6Mu6004B
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) November 28, 2023
Joel Embiid is backing up his up his MVP season with even better numbers and had a 30-point, triple-double in only three quarters against the Lakers. Tyrese Maxey is breaking out as a star player, and the guy who everyone forgot about, Tobias Harris, is having a throwback year with some of his best numbers in Philly, too.
The Sixers are 12-5 ATS and 5-2 ATS on the road. So I have no real concerns about them being the road team tonight.
As much as I like the Pelicans this year, they have been incredibly inconsistent. They went from pulling off an upset of the Clippers one night to dropping two straight games to the Utah Jazz. They could get C.J. McCollum back tonight in some type of limited fashion, which certainly could help. But this team is very much missing Trey Murphy III (who is doubtful) and yet to appear in a game yet.
I'm backing Embiid, who should be able to dominate Jonas Valanciunas in the post. The Pelicans have given up a lot of production to opposing big men. I think this game stays close, but I have Philly projected to win by five, so laying two points is something I am totally comfortable with doing here.
The Pick: Sixers -2 (-110 DraftKings)
Phoenix Suns (-3) @ Toronto Raptors (226.5 total)
The Raptors dropped another game last night to the Brooklyn Nets. After a promising start, they are now down to 8-10 on the season and likely stuck in NBA purgatory as they are better than most bad teams, but not good enough to beat the top half of teams in the league on a regular basis.
The Raptors will play for the second night in a row, and they are 1-2 ATS this season in that scenario. They are going to have to face a Phoenix Suns team that hopes to welcome Kevin Durant back to the lineup. When Durant and Booker are on the floor for Phoenix, good things usually happen.
The Suns are now 14-1 in regular season games with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
It seems to be very difficult to beat a team with both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. pic.twitter.com/F60wGPfz7x
— Suns Are Better (@SunsAreBetter) November 23, 2023
I have no way of knowing for sure that Durant suits up, but I know he was pushing to play the last game and that he has been practicing in full. If you want to wait for confirmation that he is going to play, you are going to miss out on the small spread of only three points. Once he gets announced as playing or even "probable," this line should jump up a point or two.
I'll take the Suns are my second road favorite on the night and I am putting them AND the Sixers in my ML parlay, too, I am feeling that confident in both tonight!
The Pick: Suns -3 (-110 DraftKings)
Favorite ML Parlay: PHI + PHO + LAL + ORL (+380 DK)
Favorite Teaser (no teaser tonight)
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