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Wednesday's games were a lot of fun, but I took some "L's" as the Kings and Pacers let me down and the Sixers-Hornets game wasn't able to provide enough offense. If it weren't for player props, which did very well, I would have had a really rough night.
Speaking of props, if you're looking for NBA player props, consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something each evening Monday through Friday, too. Tonight, the NBA is back with another massive slate (13 games) affording us plenty of solid betting opportunities. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, November 25.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 43-43
- Against the Spread: 19-21
- Game/Team Totals: 7-10
- Moneyline Parlay: 5-10
- Teasers: 12-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
New Orleans Pelicans (+2) @ Memphis Grizzlies (229.5 total)
Let's start off with an underdog pick, why not? The Pelicans will be without C.J. McCollum again tonight, but I am not sure that's enough of a loss to deter me from picking them here. They have a very competent backup in Jose Alvarado who actually strengthens their defense a bit even if he's not the scorer that CJM is.
The Grizzlies are still without Desmond Bane and he's a bigger piece of this team's success than most people probably realize. Yes, Morant is the engine that drives the Memphis locomotive and Jaren Jackson Jr. has been solid since returning, but Memphis has a hard time filling the void left behind by Bane on the wing as Dillon Brooks is basically just a scorer and not anywhere near the defender that Bane is.
The Pelicans are just a really scrappy team, I like the way they get after it. They remind me a lot of Memphis in that they have quality depth off the bench and a balanced approach that focuses on team basketball. New Orleans has been better this year overall, though it's hard to judge just how good Memphis could be once they get entirely healthy. In a game that is basically a coin flip, I will take the better odds on the underdog, so give me the Pels on the money line, please!
The Pick: NOP ML (+120 DK)
Denver Nuggets (-3.5) @ LA Clippers (219 total)
I really don't want to trust Denver here, but Nikola Jokic is probable and they should also get Jamal Murray and maybe MPJ (currently still questionable) back for this one tonight. Bones Hyland is still out, but if Denver is at least near full strength it's hard to imagine they couldn't put away a Clippers team that is without PG13 and Kawhi Leonard, right?
The Nuggets have been a tough team to handicap this year. We all know they have a ton of talent, but they've lost to some inferior teams so far this year and then turned around and beaten plenty of good teams, too. They're clearly not firing on all cylinders just yet and have been battling injuries. But Jokic has been outstanding in his two games since returning to the lineup and I can't see how the Clippers will be able to stop him in this one.
Denver just has so many good matchups in this game. Jamal Murray against Reggie Jackson = advantage Denver. Aaron Gordon against Marcus Morris - advantage Denver. Even the bench unit should be stronger despite the loss of Hyland because Bruce Brown is playing some great ball right now. On a night with a bunch of tough games to predict, I am counting on Jokic and the gang to secure a big win here. Cross your fingers that Denver doesn't let us down!
The Pick: DEN -3.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) @ Indiana Pacers (234 total)
The Nets and Pacers square off for the third time already this year, having split the first two meetings. The first game went over this total and finished at 241, while their second meeting (only a few days later) went under with only 225 total points.
The model is screaming UNDER here and the reason is likely this. Over their last ten games, the Pacers have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Combine that with a Brooklyn team that has the 10th best defense over their last ten and we have an opportunity to jump on the reversal of a trend here. While both teams were playing poorly on defense to start the season, they've been much improved and neither team has been great enough on offense to overcome that. I have this total projected around 225 and I want to bet it aggressively this morning as I think we see it drop during the day as the market corrects itself.
The Pick: UNDER 234 (-110 DK)
Sacramento Kings (+8) @ Boston Celtics (237.5 total)
We have the perfect storm brewing for a ton of points in this one. Boston has been one of the best teams in the league so far this year, especially on offense where their 118.8 offensive rating ranks first overall in the NBA. Guess who's second in the league in offense rating? That's right - your Sacramento Kings! So we have the league's two best offenses squaring off here in a game with an above-average pace (around 102 possessions I project).
I usually don't like betting the over on already high numbers or the under on abnormally low totals, but I don't think we can live and die by that strategy either. This game has the potential to erupt for a massive total tonight and I'm comfortable grabbing it at 237.5 and pretty confident that we will see it trend toward 240 as the day goes along.
I wish I could say I like the Kings to cover, too, but they burned me on Monday and Boston is so good when they're on their game. I do think they'll battle, though, and keep this game competitive to the end which also bodes well for the over I think.
The Pick: OVER 237.5 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Atlanta + Minnesota + Phoenix = (+124 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: PHILLY +7, PORTLAND +9, NOP +7 = (+150 DraftKings)
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