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Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (4/10/24)

Evan Mobley - NBA DFS Picks, Daily Fantasy Basketball Rankings, Injury News

Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! After a massive 14-game slate on Monday, we have eight games on the schedule tonight. Make sure to monitor injury reports, as we are in the last week of the regular season. This is not the easiest slate to navigate, with players potentially sitting out, but I will do my best.

Last night, I went 1-2 on my picks. My losses came from the Hornets not covering the first quarter and the Atlanta Hawks not covering the first half. The Knicks covering their four-point spread at least gave us a win on the board. My record in April is now 10-7.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 10. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.

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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads

 Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) at Denver Nuggets (212.5 total)

The two best teams in the Western Conference match up tonight in Denver. I like the Nuggets in the first quarter of this game. They are an NBA-best 27-13 ATS in the opening quarter at home.

The Nuggets average 31 points while also hitting 52 percent of their FGAs and 44 percent from three. Those are elite percentages from a team that's been consistent at Ball Arena all season. Minnesota scores well and shoots well in the opening quarter, but its percentages are not as good as Denver's. The Timberwolves are only 18-20-2 ATS in the first quarter on the road this season.

Denver has the second-highest first-quarter offensive rating and the third-highest defensive rating. It's not like this team is one dimensional; it has been really good on both sides of the ball. It is holding opponents to 26 points per game and 44 percent on FGAs. Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.5 points, four rebounds, and three assists in the first quarter at home this season.

Last night, Denver was leading 34-17 in Utah after 12 minutes of play. The Timberwolves were down 44-26 at home to the Washington Wizards.

The Pick: Nuggets First Quarter -1.5  (-125 ESPN BET)

 

 Toronto Raptors (+9.5) at Brooklyn Nets (222.5 total)

This line feels really high, but I'm going to roll with the Nets. Brooklyn is 20-17-3 ATS at the Barclays Center this season. Toronto is on the second leg of a back-to-back and lost to the Pacers at home last night. The Raptors are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games on the road, but it feels like this line is saying something.

Brooklyn averages 112.4 points at home compared to 109.1 on the road. It also shoots better on FGAs and from three. The Nets turn it over less at home while also upping their steals and blocks. Brooklyn is still out there fighting and trying to end the season on a high note.

On defense, this group has been solid. Among home teams, they are in the top 12 for the fewest points allowed per game. Opponents are only attempting 87.8 FGAs per game, and the Raptors aren't an efficient team. I don't always love big spreads, and it's terrifying to take it with this Nets team, but they have been good at home. They might as well go out there and play, it's not like they have any draft picks to protect anyway.

The Pick: Nets -9.5 (-115 BetMGM)

 

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NBA Betting Picks: Totals

Memphis Grizzlies (+18.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (213.5 total)

Speaking of big spreads, this is one I wouldn't touch. With Memphis playing last night, I'm going to fade its ability to put the ball in the basket in the first half. Cleveland has been excellent on defense at home this season. In the opening two quarters at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, the Cavs are holding opponents to 53.6 points.

They are a top-five first-half defense, and I also like that they play at a slow pace on offense. Cleveland should control the pace of this game, and the Grizzlies don't move too quickly, either.

This game is very important for the Cavs, and I think they should have success against a hodgepodge Grizzlies team. Cleveland is in the top 10 with the lowest FGAs and three-pointers allowed. It's hard to evaluate Memphis with so many moving parts, but that also plays into this decision.

Cleveland needs to start gearing up for the playoffs and ramping up its defense. It has a good opportunity tonight in a game it needs to win. The Cavs haven't played since blowing the lead to the Clippers on Sunday. I think they'll be good to go here.

The Pick: Grizzlies First-Half Team Total Under 47.5 (+100 PointsBet)

 

*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines. 



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