RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! After only two games yesterday, we have a much larger 12-game slate. Tonight's matchups feature a little of everything. One game I will definitely have my eye on is the Mavericks vs. Kings game. Dallas crushed Sacramento in Sacramento on Tuesday. The two teams are jostling for playoff positioning in the Western Conference and trying to avoid the play-in.
Last night, I went 0-2 on my picks. It’s been a tough week, but I have a chance to finish the week strong. I got three picks tonight and I’m ready to roll.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, March 29. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Los Angeles Clippers (-3) at Orlando Magic (212.5 total)
Despite getting an exciting late victory against the Sixers on Wednesday, I really didn't like how the Clippers looked in that game. They were down for most of the game and were able to outlast Philadelphia. Los Angeles now goes against a Magic team that is 25-11 at home this season.
I like the Magic in this home spot. Orlando is coming off a 101-93 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday. They aren't going to be a high-scoring offensive team; that's not who they are. This team flourishes on the defensive side of the ball. In March, the Magic are one of two teams holding opponents under 100 points per game. The Knicks are first at 95.7, and Orlando is second at 100.9. They are allowing the fewest FGAs per game this month and holding opponents to 46.1 percent field-goal shooting.
The Clippers are averaging 112.1 points this month and hitting 48.8 percent of their FGAs. That's a good number, but it is still outside the top 10. From three, they haven't shot it well, and Orlando has been excellent at defending the three-point line. Golden State only went 10-of-34 on Wednesday.
Los Angeles has not been as strong on defense. They are 27th in defensive rating this month. This is a good chance for an offensively challenged team like the Magic to score some points and put on a good showing for their home crowd.
Jalen Suggs pic.twitter.com/vwpZUpnu5T
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 27, 2024
The Pick: Magic +3 (-110 Caesars)
Philadelphia 76ers (+9) at Cleveland Cavaliers (212 total)
The Sixers have been rolling in the first quarter lately. Against the Clippers on Wednesday, Philadelphia opened that game with a 30-18 advantage after a quarter of play. With that cover, it improved to 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. Philly is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 opening quarters on the road. The Cavaliers have gone the other way; they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Philadelphia is 16th in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating to start games in March. Its offense hasn't particularly been inspiring. They have averaged 26.5 points while hitting 46.7 percent of the FGAs and 36.6 percent from three. The defense has been strong. Nick Nurse's squad is holding opponents to 25.3 points. That makes them a top-five defense this month. They definitely could defend the three-point line better, and it's something to watch as the Cavs are in the top 10 in three-pointers in March. Philly makes up for that by holding opponents to 44.1 percent field-goal shooting.
I like that both teams play at a slower pace to start games. Cleveland isn't a big team in terms of FGAs, and that should play in Philadelphia's favor. If the Sixers can keep this opening quarter's scoring lower, they should have a great chance to cover it. The Cavs are only hitting 44.9 percent of their drives this month and generating a low 3.9 FTAs on those drives. Philly is allowing the second-lowest PITP in the first 12 minutes of games this month. This feels like a high line in general, but I'll take my chances with the Sixers playing great to start games this month.
MAD MAX JUST IN TIME.🤯 pic.twitter.com/Se8BNrGQhr
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) March 28, 2024
The Pick: Sixers First Quarter +3.5 (-118 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Detroit Pistons (+4) at Washington Wizards (227.5 total)
I can't say this is my favorite game on the slate tonight, but there was a play I liked. Detroit is banged up right now, and I think Washington can score some points. I'm going to try to do my damage in the first half and take the Wizards team total over.
For the season, Washington is averaging 57.3 points while hitting 48.8 percent of its FGAs and 36.4 percent from three. Those numbers aren't great, but they are in the top 15 in three-pointers. The Wizards are a top-10 PITP first-half team this season. Detroit has struggled to defend the paint in the first two quarters of games.
For me, a lot of this pick comes down to opportunity. In their last 10 games, the Pistons have allowed the fifth-most FGAs and the fourth-most three-point attempts. Even though Washington isn't a great offensive team, I think they will have opportunities and good shots to score the ball. In March, the Wizards are in the top 10 in shots taken, with 15-18 seconds left on the shot clock and 18-22. These are fast shots, which Detroit likes to give up. If Washington can get volume, I'm bullish on them putting up points.
JP HOOPIN' ☔️ https://t.co/LgvDi3arxA pic.twitter.com/Etmazfgvzo
— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) March 28, 2024
The Pick: Wizards First Half Team Total Over 56.5 (-110 FanDuel)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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