RADIO
Happy Selection Sunday! Though most people will probably be watching college basketball today, we still have six games on the NBA schedule. I'll be keeping an eye on both, and it should be a fun Sunday of hoops!
After saying I was going to continue to trust my process, I went 3-0 on Friday night. The Suns covered the first half, the Nuggets covered the first quarter, and the Raptors went under their team total, although they made it extremely sweaty. I had a recent five-game skid, so it was good to see some winners. My post-All-Star break record improved to 22-11.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 1:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 17. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Phoenix Suns (+2) at Milwaukee Bucks (226 total)
Phoenix got us a nice win Friday night when they covered the 5.5 first-half spread in Charlotte. They were on the second night of a back-to-back, so I opted not to take them laying 3.5 points in the first quarter. That ended up being the right decision, as they only won the first quarter 28-26.
I'm going to start the day off by taking Phoenix in the first quarter. Against Charlotte, they hit 10/20 field goal attempts to shoot 50%. From three, they were 3/9, and they knocked down 5/8 free throw attempts. The 28 points the Suns put up were two fewer than their average of 30.4 per game. Phoenix is hitting over 50% of their FGAs and over 38% from three.
Milwaukee also averages 30 points while shooting 48% on FGAs and 39.2% from three. It's a close call, but I just like the Suns here. Neither team has been great on defense, and both give up a good amount of first-quarter points. If this is going to turn into an offensive opening 12 minutes, I'll take my chances with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
Opponents are shooting 61.5% against the Bucks on shots from 10–14 feet. That's a spot on the court that guys like Booker and Durant love to get to. If Milwaukee is vulnerable when guarding those areas, these two superstars should be able to exploit it. Booker (8.1) and Durant (7.0) average more first-quarter points than Giannis Antetokounmpo (7.3) and Damian Lillard (6.7). Grayson Allen has also been averaging 5.8 first-quarter points in the Sun's last 10 games.
*Giannis is questionable to play; monitor your injury reports for any new updates.
The finish & the foul. pic.twitter.com/T0wGmCvGRH
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) March 16, 2024
The Pick: Suns First Quarter +0.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Brooklyn Nets (+1.5) at San Antonio Spurs (220.5 total)
San Antonio got off to a bad start Friday night against the Denver Nuggets. That was good for me, as I had Nuggets lay the 3.5 in the first quarter. Settling into the game, the Spurs would outscore the Nuggets 88-80 in the next three quarters and go on to lose 117-106.
Tonight, they go up against a Nets team that has been one of the worst first-quarter road teams this season. I've faded them plenty, and I'm doing it again here. Brooklyn is 24-10 ATS in the first quarter at home, compared to 11-21 on the road.
In their last nine road games, the Nets are averaging 23.2 first-quarter points. They are shooting under 40% on FGAs and just over 32% from three. San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in their last 10. In their last five home games, the Spurs have averaged 29.6 points while shooting nearly 50% on FGAs and just under 41% from three. San Antonio is also 11th in defensive rating in the first quarter at home this season.
Victor Wembanyama joins Raef LaFrentz as the only players in NBA history to tally 200 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season! pic.twitter.com/fK2RtebiDT
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) March 16, 2024
The Pick: Spurs First Quarter ML (-114 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Toronto Raptors (+11) at Orlando Magic (219 total)
I'm running back the playbook on the Raptors team total under tonight. It was extremely close Friday night, but the Raptors finished with 103 points, cashing the under of 104.5. Toronto opened the game with 27 points. The second quarter saw them score 21, and they put up another 25 points in the third. The Raptors needed 32 points in the fourth and finished with 30. I was shocked they put up 30, and I would happily sign up to be in a position for them to need 32 points going into the fourth quarter of this game.
Toronto should be running back the same lineup. The only difference is now they play in Orlando. In the KIA Center, the Magic are fifth in defensive rating this season. They are holding opponents to 107.3 points, and in three March home games, that number has dropped to 102.7. In those three games, opposing teams shot 44.5% on FGAs and an abysmal 25.5% from three. What I've loved about Orlando's defense all season is that they limit shot attempts and rebounding opportunities.
Just like Friday night, I think Toronto will have a hard time scoring. Orlando plays at a slow pace and should dictate the way this game gets played.
go get that @jalensuggs
cc @franzboogie pic.twitter.com/szwfx7S9Aa
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 16, 2024
The Pick: Raptors Team Total Under 103.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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