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I cannot believe this is article number 99 for me this baseball season at RotoBaller. I hope in that span, I have been able to make you guys some money. Next week, I will reach the century mark, and as someone who has always loved writing about baseball, I couldn't thank RotoBaller enough for the opportunity they gave me. We have a small Thursday slate with only six games on the docket. Not to mention, Football is back! I will share my favorite pitcher props and total base props on the short slate. Let's pick some more winners.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, September 7, 2023. I will continue to hone in on pitcher props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Castillo OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
On a small slate, I tend to take the time to dig into more recent trends. This usually helps me stay updated with teams finding a groove or about to hit a rough patch. In my dig today, I found a surprising number with the Tampa Bay Rays over the last two weeks of the season. They are striking out at a 24.2% clip. Luis Castillo, on the season, has a 26.8% K%, 15.0% SwStr%, and a 3.68 SIERA. I am willing to take a small dabble here, plus money for Castillo to get to the seven-strikeout plateau tonight on the road in a good pitcher's park.
Max Fried OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Fried is back. Over his last three starts, he owns a 3.14 SIERA, 31.2% K%, and a 10.8% SwStr%. He is coming off his best performance of the year in which he struck out ten Los Angeles Dodgers and went 104 pitches. He seems healthy and is fully stretched out. He gets a matchup with the Cardinals, whose projected starting lineup has a 24.2% K% over the last 30 days against left-hand pitching. Give me Fried in DFS tonight and in prop betting.
Ryne Nelson OVER 4.5 hits allowed (-170 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryne Nelson has been getting crushed as of late. Over his last 30 days, he owns a .620 wOBA, .533 ISO, and a 69.2% hard hit. He has allowed seven hits per game over his previous seven starts. He has a .338 BAA over that span. The Cubs have been one of the hottest teams in the National League in the second half of the season, especially at home. Look for them to clear this quickly, even with the wind blowing in.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jesus Sanchez OVER 0.5 total bases (-140 DraftKings SportsBook)
We will start our hitter props with a bit of a value in Jesus Sanchez against Ryan Pepiot. In his last three starts in the big leagues, Pepiot has been outstanding at limiting damage. His underlying numbers tell us something a bit different. He has a .392 wOBA, .179 ISO, and a 40.9% hard hit against left-hand hitters. Over his last 50 plate appearances, Jesus Sanchez has turned it on and has been the best bat for this Marlins team. He has a 210 wRC+, .483 wOBA, .667 SLG, and a .359 AVG against right-hand pitching. We were betting on him to get one hit tonight.
Marcell Ozuna OVER 1.5 total bases (-140 DraftKings SportsBook)
If the Braves were as chalky as they were a couple of weeks ago in Coors Field, I wonder what their ownership will be tonight against Grandpa Adam Wainwright. Over the last 30 days, Wainwright has allowed a .540 wOBA, .375 ISO, and a 56.8% hard hit against right-hand hitters. Ozuna has been scorching hot, and the Braves best bat in the second half of the season. In his last 60 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, he has a 254 wRC+, a .551 wOBA, and a .830 SLG.
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