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Today will be my last article for a week as my family, and I are heading to OBX for vacation. I have Thunder Dan and Tommy Bell covering my articles next week, so you all will be in good hands. I am back again today for more player props after going 1-2 in yesterday's article. We will attack a few spots I usually wouldn't today as we have some pitchers in some excellent spots with splits. I am looking for a sweep heading into vacation, so let's get to it.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, August 3, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jack Flaherty will make his first start for the Baltimore Orioles after he was dealt from the Cardinals at the deadline. I love this acquisition for the O's as it brings a veteran presence to the young rotation. Flaherty fits well in this division full of right-handed power bats with his splits. I wouldn't be surprised to see him surge in his new environment in the second half of the season. This move may be one of the most prominent heading into the postseason.
Flaherty enters today's start with a 4.72 SIERA, 21.9% K%, 11.1% BB%, and 10.2% SwStr %. He only got over six strikeouts in two of his last five starts. His opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays, is in the middle of the pack regarding strikeouts against right-handed hitters. They own a 21.7% K%, 108 wRC+, .325 wOBA, and a .422 SLG on the season. None of these numbers jump out as a spot to attack. I know you are asking the question why are we betting on the over here?
I love this spot so much for Flaherty because of the splits. On the season, Flaherty owns a 27.0% K% against right-hand hitters. It's been even better over the last 30 days, as he holds a 30.6% K%. The Blue Jays will send at least six right-handed bats to the plate tonight against Flaherty. The other intriguing part that lines up so well for this spot is that the lefties are the easiest to strike out, so there are Ks there, too. Brandon Belt owns a 35.7% K% on the season, and Daulton Varsho owns a 34.4% K% over the last 30 days. This is not a traditional spot to attack, but I love Flaherty this afternoon.
Cristian Javier OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We have another arm in Cristian Javier today, who is in an excellent spot for his splits. Javier will face the right-handed dominant lineup of the New York Yankees tonight. On the season, Javier has a 4.61 SIERA, 22.9% K%, 7.8% BB%, and 11.7% SwStr%. The intriguing part here is the K% against right-hand batters. Javier has a 31.0% K% on the season against righties and a 33.3% K% over the last 30 days against the split. The Yankees will send at least seven right-handed bats to the plate tonight, making this the ultimate boom spot for Javier.
On the season, the Yankees have a 22.5% K% against right-hand pitching. The projected lineup tonight has a 24.1% K%, including a 24.9% K% over the last 30 days. Javier has started to turn it on as of late as well. Over his previous three starts, he owns a 4.67 SIERA, 30.9% K%, and 14.7% SwStr%. I love attacking these splits today, making Flaherty and Javier my two favorite K Props on the board tonight.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Kyle Tucker+ Yordan Alvarez to record a hit (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Throughout the season, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Clarke Schmidt will get the ball for the Yankees against the Astros. Schmidt has a .265 BAA on the season. Mikolas has allowed a .290 BAA against lefties this season and a .238 BAA against righties. We will focus on attacking the best two left-handed bats regarding average and recent trends to get a hit since his splits are much weaker than left-handed hitters.
Yordan Alvarez is the left right-handed bat in this lineup against right-hand pitching. He has a .277 AVG against the split this season. Alvarez has a hit in all six games since his return from the IL, including nine hits over that span. Kyle Tucker is the next-best left-handed bat against righties in this lineup. He is hitting .277 against right-hand pitching this season. Tucker is scorching hot and has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. He has 17 hits over that span.
Here's a free bet for you all for the DraftKings no-sweat SGP. Yordan Alvarez to get a hit, Kyle Tucker to get a hit, Cristian Javier five plus strikeouts, and the Astros moneyline. This is a +320 bet for no risk. Good luck today, all, and see you in a week!
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