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After an extremely light Thursday slate, MLB returns with a typical full night of action Friday that is particularly heavy on quality pitchers taking the hill. Nevertheless, there are also hitters in good spots, and we'll focus on those as well in today's piece.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, July 28, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Sonny Gray UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs allowed (-111 Caesars Sportsbook)
Gray is one of several impressive pitchers taking the hill Friday, and I particularly like the matchup the veteran right-hander draws. Gray has already dominated the Royals on two occasions this season, pitching to a 2-0 record and 0.82 ERA over 11 innings.
Kansas City has also frequently struggled to score runs this season and is averaging a modest 4.1 per home game, while Minnesota checks in allowing an MLB-low 3.7 per road contest. Then, Gray has conceded a tiny 0.2 HR/9 over 48.1 road frames and KC checks in with an anemic .220 average, .261 wOBA and MLB-worst -15.7 wRAA against righties at home in the last month.
Gray has also yielded two runs or less in a highly impressive 13 of 20 starts, a sample that includes four shutout efforts of five innings or more.
Brandon Williamson OVER 2.5 Earned Runs allowed (-165 BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Dodgers have Friday's highest projected totals at 6 runs, and Williamson comes into his start against them with a 4.95 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 20 road innings.
The young left-hander is also facing a team that's hit the ball especially hard versus lefties at home since June 1, posting 16 extra-base hits (out of 36 total) in that sample on their way to a .344 wOBA. Los Angeles is also averaging 5.5 runs per home game, the third-highest figure in that split in all of baseball.
Williamson does come in having surrendered two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts, but there is an asterisk attached to that sample -- three of the four outings came in his home park, where he's been better thus far, and the one that didn't against an inconsistent Nationals team lasted just three innings.
Conversely, Williamson has given up at least three earned runs in six of his other eight starts, and he conceded a career-high six to these same Dodgers back on June 7.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Hits (+195 DraftKings SportsBook)
Freddie Freeman is so good at baseball. pic.twitter.com/jQzk5ZDuUj
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 22, 2023
Freeman is once again one of the best hitters in baseball, a title that's been perpetually attached to him for good reason. The veteran infielder heads into Friday's action with a blistering bat, as he owns a .459 average, 1.464 OPS, eight extra-base hits, and eight RBI in his last nine games.
Freeman has always been proficient in same-handed matchups, and he'll draw one to open the game Friday night against southpaw Brandon Williamson. Freeman boasts a .314 average, 1.042 OPS, .436 wOBA, and 179 wRC+ in 134 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, while Williamson enters Friday's action having surrendered a .321 wOBA on the road thus far in his young career.
Freeman is also hitting .316 at home and is an excellent hitter against Williamson's most often thrown pitch against lefty bats, the four-seam fastball – he owns a .391 average and .511 wOBA against that offering. Then, Reds relievers have given up a .338 wOBA to lefty bats over the last month, building up Freeman's case for a possible 40th multi-hit effort of the season.
Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-170 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arraez's chances of hitting .400 are dwindling, but that doesn't mean the standout hitter has slowed down a great deal. In fact, Arraez enters Friday evening's home matchup against the Tigers with a .349 average and .881 OPS over his last 10 games, a sample in which he's compiled a combined 26 hits, runs, and RBI.
Arraez has been a terror all season at home with a .414 average, .959 OPS, and 128 combined hits, runs, and RBI over 50 games at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins project for a healthy 4.8 run total Friday as well, a figure that's risen from its opening tally of 4.5.
Tigers starter Reese Olson has been solid as a rookie overall, but he's surrendered a .267 average to left-handed hitters on the road and a .346 wOBA overall to that handedness of hitter. Additionally, Detroit relievers have surrendered that same .346 wOBA to the 81 lefty bats they've faced on the road in the last month.
Anthony Rizzo OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) OR To Hit A Home Run (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rizzo snapped out of an extended home-run drought Sunday against the Royals, and although he's subsequently gone 0-for-9 in the next two games, the veteran slugger is in a solid spot Friday to reignite his bat.
One of the primary reasons is Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez, a talented but still-inconsistent right-hander that's surrendered an astoundingly poor .412 average, 1.340 OPS, and .549 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home over a 62-batter sample. Eight of the 21 hits he's surrendered in that sample have gone for extra bases.
What's more, Rodriguez has had trouble keeping the ball in the park all season and especially at Camden Yards, where he's carrying a 2.4 HR/9 and an abysmal 9.11 ERA in 26.2 innings.
The Yankees have a projected run total that's already climbed from an open of 4 runs to 4.5 as of late Thursday night, and with Aaron Judge projected to return to the lineup Friday, Rizzo should have more protection in the lineup and more potential run-scoring/RBI opportunities.
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