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We get back to some normalcy tonight as the schedule for this Tuesday is more traditional. With two games going off at 6:40 PM EST and the other 13 games after that so it's all evening action on the docket. Due to some scheduling changes, I am covering props again for the third straight day! Let's see if we can't get a sweep today - and I might load up on pitching props since that's usually my forte!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and enjoy the holiday!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings)
The front-runner in the AL Cy Young race heads to Chicago to take on the Cubbies tonight. McClanahan is coming off two excellent starts in a row, shutting down Milwaukee and Toronto while striking out seven hitters over seven frames in both games.
What I noticed was the dip in walks as he walked just one batter over those 14 innings. Walks have been his Achilles heel and if he's pounding the zone, he's going to be able to pitch into the 6th and 7th inning more often.
Shane McClanahan, Bowel Locking 87mph Changeup. 💩 pic.twitter.com/JU4ZzPIPtG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 25, 2023
I have him projected for almost 8 strikeouts tonight. Chicago has been reeling at the plate and they are striking out nearly 29% of the time against lefties over the last two-week sample. I like betting on studs, and Mac has the pedigree we are looking for with a 29% strikeout rate this year and a massive 16% SwStr%.
Yusei Kikuchi OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
Kikuchi is a guy who can be tough to invest in on a daily basis as his game log is a bit of a roller-coaster. He's anything but consistent when it comes to strikeouts and run prevention. Even his control, which is usually decent, has abandoned him recently as he's walked six hitters over his last two starts.
So why the heck am I betting on him to get six strikeouts tonight?
Because he's facing the Milwaukee Brewers! This has been the matchup that simply keeps on giving! When you rule "openers" who only pitch a few innings, only three traditional starters this season (out of 15) have failed to strike out six Brewers this season.
Milwaukee's K% against lefties continues to hover around 29%, giving any decent lefty with a 20% strikeout rate or better a pretty solid chance. It will be all about efficiency for Kikuchi today. If he can avoid walks and keep the ball in the park (admittedly a problem for him over the last several seasons), I can see him cruising to six or more strikeouts in this one.
Kodai Senga OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings)
If there's one guy who worries me with walks every time out, it's Senga. He has been issuing way too many free passes this season, in fact, he's walked at least three hitters in all but one start. That's a major red flag and something he's going to have to clean up for sure.
Kodai Senga, Dirty 86mph Ghost Fork...and Sword. 👻🍴⚔️ pic.twitter.com/xxIB5RFC1a
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 25, 2023
But he's been consistently missing bats, too, racking up a 28% strikeout rate. That's a big number that suggests he has some pretty solid swing-and-miss stuff. His forkball that he throws down in the dirt gets a lot of hitters to chase in two-strike counts. So if he can work from ahead in the count, he has massive strikeout potential - as we saw when he whiffed 12 Rays just two starts ago.
We just need six from him today to cash this one, and he's hit that number in 7 of his 9 starts.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Austin Riley OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)
After putting up less-than-stellar numbers for much of the first 6-7 weeks, Riley is on a roll. The powerful third baseman has an 11-game hit streak going and has 2+ total bases in 9 of those games. He hasn't had the home run stroke this season but does have a bunch of multi-hit games stacked up during this streak and a bunch of doubles, too.
Riley has some solid splits against lefties this season with a .416 wOBA and .308 ISO against them. JP Sears, meanwhile, has struggled at times this year with loud contact and has a 58% FB% against righties. I like Sears, but he's far too reliant on just two pitches (his fastball and changeup), and usually by the second or third time through the lineup, opposing hitters are ready to sit on one pitch or the other. I love Riley's chances at driving a baseball today - either into the gap or into the seats.
Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 runs (-130 DraftKings)
Marte leads off for the Snakes against lefties and today he will face a familiar foe as Colorado is sending Southpaw Kyle Freeland to the mound.
Marte is 12-37 against Freeland over 44 career plate appearances, which is good for a .324 average. I didn't like the odds on his TB or R+H+RBI today, so we are simply betting on him to score here. He could easily get on base via hit or walk and come around to score and I think he will.
This Arizona offense has been better against lefties than righties this season and Colorado's bullpen that backs Freeland has been mediocre at best, too. If we project for five plate appearances today, that gives him a great shot of getting on and making it around to score at least once.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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