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Happy Thursday, everybody. Two more days until the weekend; it's almost here. We are starting to get trends and be able to trust adjustments that players have made through the offseason and into early 2023. This is a point of the season where I still will rely on stats from 2022, but I am focusing more on 2023 numbers. Let's keep this momentum rolling into some excellent plays for today's slate, which consists of baseball all day.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, April 27, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without any further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shane McClanahan had 32 swings and misses in his last outing against this same Chicago White Sox team he faces today. He has a 32.5% K to start the season with a 20.3% SwStr. Yes, a 20.3% SwStr. He is the only pitcher in the big leagues with a CSW% in the 75th percentile on four different pitches. This dude is electric, and he's not slowing down. This White Sox team has a 23.0% K against left-hand pitching. They struck out eight times yesterday to Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi and are struggling over the last week at the plate. I don't think we see another 32 swings and misses, but I like the chances of his over-hitting here.
Logan Webb OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Logan Webb has a career-high 29.5% K, with a 10.6% SwStr. He has a 4.40 ERA, but his xFIP is 2.55, and his SIERA is 2.66. He also has a .333 BABIP with only a 1.14 WHIP. All this screams that he is getting very unlucky, and positive regression is coming. The Cardinals have a 21.4% K against right-hand pitching. I love that the Cardinals will roll out a minimum of five right-handed bats in the lineup today, and Webb excels in K% against this split. He has a 34.8% K against right-hand batters and only 22.6% K against left-hand batters. Although the Cardinals don't jump off the page as an attackable team, they are a perfect matchup for Webb because of his splits.
Matt Strahm OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Strahm has been exceptional to start 2023 after moving from the bullpen to the rotation after signing with Philadelphia this offseason. He has pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 38.0% K. His SwStr is at 15.5%, which is elite. He is slowly getting stretched out, as he went a season-high 82 pitches last time. The Mariners are a bottom-ten team in the bigs against left-hand pitching. They own a 26.5% K, .380 SLG, .285 wOBA, and an 85 wRC+ against left-hand pitching, all bottom ten in baseball. This team is exploitable against this split, and the way Strahm has been throwing the rock to start this year, I don't see this offense being the one to slow them down.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 total bases (+130 FanDuel SportsBook)
All Luis Arraez does is hit. He has a .444 AVG to start the season after leading baseball in batting average last season. He doesn't have a ton of pop, but he finds ways to get on base and score runs. He has a .179 ISO this season and a ridiculous .496 wOBA against right-hand pitching. Kyle Wright has struggled against lefties this season, allowing a .412 ISO, .427 wOBA, and a 64.3% hard hit so far this season. He hits fastballs and knuckle curveballs to a +.400 wOBA, which is the majority of Kyle Wright's pitch mix.
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 0.5 home runs (+450 DraftKings SportsBook)
Ryan Mountcastle is a lefty masher and has been tearing up left-handed pitching his whole career. He faces Joey Wentz today, who has a 1.62 HR/9 in 2023. Against righties, he has a .226 ISO, .359 wOBA, and a 53.7% FB. He allows a ton of balls to be hit in the air, and Mountcastle has a .406 ISO, .429 wOBA, and 53.6% hard hit against left-hand pitching this year. I will also be betting on his TBs, but I love the home run from Mountcastle tonight.
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