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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, April 26, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
Happy Wednesday, everybody. Yesterday was an excellent slate of baseball and another profitable day. We are starting to get trends and be able to trust adjustments that players have made through the offseason and into early 2023. This is a point of the season where I still will rely on stats from 2022, but I am focusing more on 2023 numbers. I am starting to get hot, and I recommend getting on board while you can. As they say, either jump on board or get off the tracks when the train is coming through. Let's keep this momentum rolling into some excellent plays for today's slate, which consists of baseball all day long.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without any further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Zac Gallen looks excellent to open up 2023. He has a 2.59 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .179 BAA in his first five starts. He has a 33.1% K, a significant jump from his 26.9% K last season. His SwStr is also up to 13.1%, a full three percentage points better than his 2022 rates. One big adjustment he has made is he has ditched his slider entirely, which was his worst pitch in the previous three seasons. He is also throwing his fastball at the lowest percentage of his career. This has led to more cutters and curveballs and can contribute to why we're seeing the spike in strikeouts.
He faces the Kansas City Royals at home. The Royals have a 25.7% K against right-hand pitching in 2023 and are bottom five in ISO and wOBA. Gallen has two outings this year in which he has struck out 11 batters. I don't see the Royals giving him any fits in this matchup with how he's been throwing the ball.
Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's try this again with Logan Gilbert tonight after he was scratched from yesterday's start and pushed back to today. Gilbert has seemed to find the K stuff he flashed in the minor leagues that made him a top prospect this season. He has a 31.1% K with a 10.6% SwStr through this campaign's first four starts. He is deploying a new splitter compared to the changeup he threw in 2022. The splitter has become his best pitch this season and has a 33.3% whiff. We can contribute this to the jump in K%, giving us a reason to believe it can sustain.
The Phillies have a 24.7% K against right-handed pitching, which ranks top 10 in baseball. I hope the extra day off gives Gilbert the rest he needs, as I am a little worried about him being scratched. The matchup and upside of Gilbert are too good to pass up here, even if it comes with some risk.
MacKenzie Gore OVER 2.5 walks allowed (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MacKenzie Gore opened the season with a ridiculous 16.3% BB leading to a 6.0 BB/9. He faces the New York Mets, one of the most patient teams in baseball with an 11.2% BB, good for second in the big leagues. In 2022, Gore had a 4.76 BB/9, so struggling with the command is not new for Gore.
I am also parlaying this prop with Athletics rookie Luis Medina and his over 2.5 walks allowed and Michael Kopech and his over 2.5 walks allowed if you want a free bet. I have been hot recently with this prop, so let's keep the train rolling here.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings SportsBook)
We will pick on White Sox pitching with Toronto bats for the second night in a row. Michael Kopech has a 6.97 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 5.07 SIERRA, and 1.74 WHIP. He has gotten hit by both sides of the plate early this season. He has a .467 wOBA, .375 ISO, and a 42.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed batters. Against lefties, it's just as rough, with a .368 wOBA, .347 ISO, and a 63.6% hard-hit rate.
Vlad has started the season with a .239 ISO, .385 wOBA, 48.3% hard-hit rate, and a minuscule 10.4% K%. Kopech is a two-pitch mix guy at this point in his career. He throws a slider and a fastball in the 94-96 mph range.
Vlad has a .512 wOBA, .492 ISO, and a 49.1% hard-hit rate against fastballs in that velocity range. He also has a .362 wOBA, .229 ISO, and a 45.6% hard-hit rate against sliders from right-handed pitchers. This is about as good a matchup as you can get. I will not only be betting on his total bases but also laddering a home run with him.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 0.5 stolen bases (+165 DraftKings SportsBook)
Sandy Alcantara doesn't allow many base runners, but when he does, they run and run often. Since 2022, he leads today's slate with 27 stolen bases given up. He has also already given up three to start the 2023 campaign. His adversary, Ronald Acuna Jr., leads the big leagues in stolen bases, as he has stolen 13 bags already this season. If Acuna can get on base, he will try to run and more than likely will be successful. The juice here isn't great, but this is as likely of hitting as any of the total base bets you place daily.
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