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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, Aug. 28, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
It's an unusually large Monday slate of MLB action today as we have 14 games on tap! The more the merrier, if you ask me.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, Aug. 28, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Luis Severino over 5.5 strikeouts (+110, DraftKings sportsbook)
There's little doubt it's been a tough go for Severino this season but he should be entering this start against the Tigers with plenty of confidence.
The veteran tossed 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball his last time out, surrendering just one hit and two walks in that time. He only struck out two, but he also faced a Nationals offense that doesn't strike out a whole lot as they rank second in baseball with a 19% K% on the season.
The Tigers have plenty of swing and miss in their bats. Their 24.1% K% on the season in a bottom-10 figure while their 86 wRC+ on the campaign is tied for 27th. Severino should be able to keep this offense in check while once again getting deep into a ball game, therefore allowing himself enough time to strike out at least six Tigers.
He is also due for some positive regression in the strikeout department. His 17.7% K% on the season is not only by a far a career-low but is also 10% worse than his 27.7% clip from a season ago. For his career, Severino sports a 26.1% K%, so we should start to see him strike out more hitters moving forward.
Tonight is a fine opportunity to see said positive regression in the strikeout department kick in.
Bryan Woo to record a win (+130, DraftKings sportsbook)
The top matchup on the slate belongs to Mariners rookie Bryan Woo who takes on a weak A's offense at home.
The A's enter this contest sporting a .293 wOBA on the season, easily the worst mark in baseball. While Woo owns a mediocre 4.58 ERA on the season, he also sports a 3.97 FIP and 3.99 SIERA, which suggest he should see improved results to some degree moving forward.
Run support shouldn't be a problem for the right-hander, either. The Mariners sit in a share of 11th with a .323 wOBA on the season but they also rank first with a .409 wOBA over the last two weeks. The Mariners need all the wins they can get at this point as they remain in a dogfight with the Astros and Rangers in the AL West as well as plenty of competition in the Wild Card picture.
Woo has just one win in 12 starts this season. However, he has also allowed just six earned runs over his last three starts, going at least five innings twice. He went just four innings in his return from injury his last time out but he should have more leash in this one, especially if he's able to take advantage of a very poor A's offense.
We're getting great value here on what should be a winning effort from Woo tonight in Seattle.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Sean Murphy over 1.5 total bases (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
There's little doubt that Sean Murphy has cooled off in the season's second half and who could blame him?
Murphy absolutely raked in the first half and still sports an .896 OPS on the season with 20 homers and another 18 doubles to his credit. However, he has done his best work against lefties this season and that is what he will see tonight against Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber.
Gomber enters this one sporting a 5.48 ERA on the season while allowing a hefty 1.65 HR/9. He actually has better numbers against right-handed hitters than he does lefties but Murphy's numbers against lefties have been sensational this season.
The 28-year-old has hit lefties for a .324 average, .250 isolated power, and a 1.006 OPS on the campaign. His career splits are actually quite narrow but Murphy has done significant damage against left-handed pitching this season.
Add in the Coors Field effect and we should see Murphy cruise past 1.5 total bases tonight.
Julio Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
We noted above that the Mariners sport the best offense in baseball of late and Julio Rodriguez has been the catalyst behind the white-hot stretch
J-Rod is hitting .519 with four homers and a 1.388 OPS over his last 11 games and 57 trips to the plate. He is also taking on one of the worst starting pitchers on Monday's slate in the form of right-hander Kyle Muller.
Muller has tossed 59 1/3 innings of 7.28 ERA ball on the season, He has also made 13 starts at Triple-A where he was tattooed for a 7.26 ERA in 62 innings of work. His 5.40 SIERA is well below his prevailing ERA but there's little doubt Muller has struggled mightily wherever he has pitched this season.
It sure seems as if we're getting a mighty fine price on perhaps the hottest hitter in baseball in a fantastic home matchup tonight.
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