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What's going on RotoBallers? John Brubaker here for my first installment of FREE MLB Player Props. I've been fairly successful on player props on the year thus far, though it appears I may have come up on the wrong side of things in the Cardinals/Rockies matchup last night. Nevertheless, we have a plentiful slate to pick from today, as all 30 teams will be taking the field. Let's get right to it.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jacob deGrom OVER 9.5K (+114 FD) vs. KC
I'll start things off with Jacob deGrom. After a rocky (no pun intended) first start of the season against Philly, deGrom bounced back against Baltimore last Wednesday, going six innings and allowing one (earned) run and striking out 11. We'll take a look for him to continue to strike batters out at a high rate today against the Royals.
The Royals come into this matchup with a 25.7% strikeout rate, which ranks sixth-worst in the Majors. I have deGrom projected for a whopping 42.19% strikeout rate in this one, with a median projection of 9.77 strikeouts.
Cristian Javier OVER 6.5K (+104 FD) vs. PIT
I'll take a trip to Pittsburgh next. The Pirates have had a surprising start to the season, and have been relatively middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate, coming into this one at 22.3%.
Javier has been so-so in terms of strikeouts, striking out six and five batters in his first two starts, respectively. However, he projects to a 34.64% strikeout rate in this one, with a median projection of 7.71 strikeouts.
Hunter Gaddis UNDER 4.5K (-126 FD) vs. NYY
I'll wrap things up with pitchers today with Hunter Gaddis. Gaddis got roughed up by the Mariners in his first start of the season, allowing four runs in just 3.2 innings. He ended up bouncing back against the lowly A's, tossing six innings of one-run ball while striking out four.
Considering the fact he struck out just four hitters in each of his first two starts, Ceasars is offering a bit of a goofy line here at 4.5. My model projects Gaddis to a 12.54% strikeout rate this afternoon against the Yankees, with a median projection of 2.79 strikeouts. Even if this number dips to 3.5, which I have to think it will on most sportsbooks, I still like the under.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Judge over 1.5 TB (-135 DK) vs. CLE
As far as hitters go, I'll look at a couple of studs today. We'll somewhat "stack" the Gaddis strikeout prop with Aaron Judge's total bases prop here. Judge is coming into this one hitting .333 on the year, with a 1.113 OPS and four home runs early on in the season.
Judge is among the leaders in projected wOBA today according to my model, coming in at a whopping .474 wOBA. He projects to 2.53 total bases in this matchup against Gaddis, giving us another great value play in the first game of the day.
Mike Trout over 1.5 TB (+105 DK) vs. WSH
I'll head out to the West Coast to take a look at Trout's total bases next. I took Trout's total bases last night against Patrick Corbin, but I think his matchup is even better today against Josiah Gray. Gray had a phenomenal start given the circumstances in Coors last week, but water always finds its level.
Trout does not fall far behind Judge in the wOBA category this afternoon, with a projection of .408. He's got a median projection of 2.1 total bases in this one, and I wouldn't be shocked in the least if he sends to the moon off of Gray.
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