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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/27/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another week of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 27, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 74-75-2, -17.95 units
- Sides: 35-36-1, -12.96 units
- Totals: 38-39-1, -6.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Mets
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYM -210
MIA: Pablo Lopez | NYM: Carlos Carrasco
While I was at a wedding and didn't see any of it, we finished up last week 0-2 on Saturday. While the Mets did get to Waldichuk in the first inning as well, I never would've thought both Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes would allow first-inning runs on the same day. We'll be taking a look at the Mets again today, but not for a first-inning under.
I'll start out in New York for a first-five play this evening. The visiting Marlins will be sending Pablo Lopez (9-10, 3.88 ERA) to the mound. While Lopez has pitched well this season, allowing just 29% hard contact and bringing in a 3.59 xFIP, most of the damage done against him has come against the Mets. In four starts against New York, he's allowed a whopping 24 runs (23 earned) in just 16.2 innings pitched.
The Mets will be sending veteran Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.79 ERA) to the mound. Carrasco has been great for the Mets this season, and quite simply, the Mets have won when he's on the mound. While he has allowed a 31.5% hard contact rate on the season, he is due for some positive regression given his 3.38 xFIP. Contrary to Lopez, Carrasco has been excellent against the Marlins. He's allowed just six earned runs in 25.2 innings across four starts against Miami this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the full game money line at -210, which is a respectable price that isn't too steep, but I'll be looking at the Mets F5 -0.5 in this one. That number sits at just -130, and the Mets have a strong advantage in both the starting pitcher and (projected) starting lineup categories, according to my model.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Brewers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -110
STL: Miles Mikolas | MIL: Adrian Houser
We'll head out to Milwaukee for our second play of the day. We backed Brewers starter Corbin Burnes in a first-inning under play on Saturday, and we'll back today's starter Adrian Houser to hold the Cardinals scoreless in the opening frame tonight.
Houser (6-9, 4.62 ERA) has been nothing more than decent in the first inning overall this season. He's allowed a first-inning run in eight of his 20 starts overall. However, he's been so much better in the first at home, allowing a first-inning run in just two of 10 starts. He's 1-1 to the first inning under against St. Louis this season but has been true to form, allowing the run on the road while keeping them scoreless at home. It's a good time to jump on this, though, as the Cardinals have been held scoreless in the first inning in each of their last 12 games.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will be sending their "ace" Miles Mikolas (11-13, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Unlike Houser, Mikolas has been excellent in the first inning this season. He's allowed a tally in the first in just six of 31 starts overall, and just twice in 17 starts on the road. The Brewers' offense hasn't been very potent in the opening frame lately either, being held scoreless in nine of their last ten.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -125, creating some solid value here. If this line crept up towards -140 and beyond I wouldn't take it, so make sure to jump on it quickly! My model has the under good up to -138, so we'll take it while it's this low.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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