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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/25/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, September 25, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 71-54-4 (0.82 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Yankees
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYY -104
ARI: Merrill Kelly | NYY: Clarke Schmidt
I'll start things off in The Bronx as the Diamondbacks and Yankees wrap up their series in a makeup game.
It'll be Merrill Kelly (12-7, 3.37 ERA) taking the ball for the Diamondbacks. Strangely enough, Kelly's current ERA is the exact same as it was to close out his 2022 season. He is due for regression here, though, bringing in a 4.03 xERA, 3.82 xFIP, and a projected 4.41 SIERA today. However, I don't see that regression coming today as he takes on a Yankees lineup that projects to just a .299 wOBA against him.
It'll be Clarke Schmidt taking the ball for the Yankees. Schmidt (9-9, 4.65 ERA) is actually due for some positive regression here, as shown by his 4.23 xERA and 4.30 xFIP. He brings in the same exact SIERA as Kelly (4.41), but I trust Kelly far more against this Yankees lineup than vice versa. The Diamondbacks project to a .325 wOBA against Schmidt, which isn't particularly impressive, but still gives the Diamondbacks an advantage here.
The fact of the matter is that the Diamondbacks have far more to play for here. They're in the heat of the NL Wild Card race. While their chances at the top Wild Card spot are slipping, they still have a chance to make this coming week a comfortable one. I'll back them on the F5 moneyline, which we can get at -118 on FanDuel.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.85 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Mariners
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SEA -118
HOU: Justin Verlander | SEA: Luis Castillo
I'll wrap things up out in the Pacific Northwest as the Astros come into town to take on the Mariners.
The Astros will send Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.44 ERA) to the mound. Given the 3.44 ERA, it wouldn't be right to say that Verlander has finally "hit the wall". However, his 3.89 xERA and 4.63 xFIP may indicate that regression is coming. Whether that comes this postseason or after, his 4.28 projected SIERA in this one against a Mariners lineup that projects to a .365 wOBA is not a good indicator that he'll be lights out tonight.
The Mariners will give the ball to Luis Castillo (14-7, 3.06 ERA) in this one. I've bet on baseball almost every day for the last six months, and Castillo's excellent 2023 still flew under my radar, to be honest. His 3.67 xERA and 3.78 xFIP show that regression is possible but it won't be much. He projects to a 3.79 SIERA against an Astros lineup that projects to a .334 wOBA against him. He's 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA against the Astros in his career and has tossed seven innings in both starts against them this season.
These two clubs are battling for a postseason spot in the AL Wild Card race, with just half a game separating them. This series is absolutely massive, two heavyweight fighters going blow for blow. My bet is that the Mariners get the first knockdown behind Castillo, winning Game 1 of this pivotal series, which we can get at -118 on FanDuel.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.85 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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