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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/24/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, September 24, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 74-73-2, -15.95 units
- Sides: 35-36-1, -12.96 units
- Totals: 38-37-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Athletics
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK +315
NYM: Jacob deGrom | OAK: Ken Waldichuk
We finished 1-1 yesterday, and I primarily blame myself. I mentioned how I don't like backing Lucas Giolito, and I did anyways. It was unfortunate that the White Sox waited until the sixth inning to get them back into it. Nevertheless, we'll look to bounce back today with a pair of first-inning unders.
I'll start out in Oakland where the Mets will be sending Jacob deGrom (5-2, 2.32 ERA) to the mound. deGrom has been nothing short of his usual self since returning from injury, and he's been a staple in these picks since he's been back. This is because through nine starts he remains perfect in the first inning, holding opponents scoreless in the opening frame in each of his nine starts, three of which came on the road.
The A's will be sending Ken Waldichuk (0-2, 7.13 ERA) to the mound. Waldichuk has been average in the first inning, holding opponents scoreless in two of his four starts on the year. He is a perfect 1-0 at home though, so I'll be looking at backing him in the first inning this afternoon, although I think the Mets should have no problem winning this one and getting to Waldichuk eventually.
FanDuel Sportsbook has this line relatively juiced at -165 as I'm typing this. I expect to see that number rise throughout the day, and for good reason. With a pitcher like deGrom on the mound against a lackluster lineup like Oakland's, we only necessarily have to worry about one pitcher getting the job done. My model is giving the first inning under a 64.59% chance of hitting, good for -182. We'll take the value here and run with it.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-165) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Reds
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CIN +188
MIL: Corbin Burnes | CIN: Graham Ashcraft
We'll head out to Cincinnati for the second first-inning under as we see another low game total play where the first-inning under projects well.
While we mentioned perennial Cy Young contender Jacob deGrom in the first play, we'll take a look at the reigning NL Cy Young in our second play. The Brewers will send Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.12 ERA) to the mound. He's having a relatively down year in comparison to his last few seasons but has still been very good in the first inning. He's allowed a first-inning run in just two of 13 starts on the road as well as just three of 29 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Reds will be sending a returning Graham Ashcraft (5-3, 3.97 ERA) to the mound. Ashcraft was solid for the Reds and particularly heated up right before his IL stint. He's been good in the first inning as well, allowing a run in just 11 of 16 starts overall, including six of eight starts at Great American Ballpark. One of those two home starts where he allowed a tally was against Milwaukee, but he bounced back on August 7 when he held the Brew Crew scoreless in the opening frame.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -142, relatively low considering the game total sitting at 7.5. My model has the under at 60.91%, good for implied odds of -156. It's not a whopping gap in expected value, but a gap nonetheless. Let's see if we can turn things around and get some luck back on our side. I'll catch you all on Monday, as I'll be at a wedding this afternoon so I'll be pinch-hit for tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend!
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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