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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/22/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 22, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 68-53-4 (-0.15 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WSH +215
ATL: Charlie Morton | WSH: Patrick Corbin
I'll start off in our nation's capitol as we have an NL East matchup between the Braves and Nationals. It'll be a pair of veterans on the mound for these respective teams, so let's see how things shake out.
The Braves will send Charlie Morton (14-12, 3.66 ERA) to the mound. Morton has actually been a prime example of pitching above your expected stats in 2023, bringing in a 4.65 xERA and 4.25 xFIP. Nevertheless, he projects to a 4.28 SIERA against the Nationals today, while the Nationals project to just a .309 wOBA against him. The projected lineup for the Nationals is hitting just .169 against the 39-year-old righty.
It'll be Patrick Corbin taking the ball for the Nationals. Corbin (10-13, 5.00 ERA) really struggles against Atlanta, with their projected lineup hitting a whopping .330 against him. He brings in 5.90 xERA, 4.68 xFIP, and a projected 4.48 SIERA against this Braves lineup that projects to a .362 wOBA against him.
The Braves are still fighting for the number-one seed in the NL and home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. I'll back them on the run line here, which we can get at -152 on FanDuel.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-152), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.66 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -162
NYM: Tylor Megill | PHI: Taijuan Walker
I'll wrap things up out in Philly, as we have another NL East showdown taking place in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies took the first game of this series 5-4 last night and will look to get, at worst, a series split with a win today.
The Mets will send Tylor Megill (8-8, 4.94 ERA) to the mound today. Megill's certainly had a down year, as well as the rest of the Mets. He also doesn't look like he's going to turn things around before the conclusion of 2023, as he brings in a 6.29 xERA and 5.06 xFIP. He hasn't pitched against Philly in 2023 but did throw 10.1 scoreless innings against them last season. Tonight, however, Megill projects to a 5.03 SIERA against a Philly lineup that projects to a solid .366 wOBA against the righty.
It'll be Taijuan Walker taking the ball for the Phillies. Say what you want about Walker (15-5, 4.40 ERA), but the Phillies have done nothing but win games with him on the mound this season. He brings in a 4.50 xERA and 4.73 xFIP, as well as a projected 4.84 SIERA. The Mets project to a .321 wOBA against him, but have hit just .125 off of the former Met in their careers.
The Phillies are still trying to close in on the top Wild Card spot in the National League, while the Mets are trying to play spoiler. I think the Mets are closer to vacation than the Phillies are to losing that top spot, so I'll back the Phillies on the moneyline.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-162), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.62 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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