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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/21/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another week of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 21, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 74-72-2, -15.43 units
- Sides: 34-35-1, -12.72 units
- Totals: 37-36-1, -4.41 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Yankees
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYY -310
PIT: Roansy Contreras | NYY: Luis Severino
We finished 1-1 yesterday, as Kenley Jansen just couldn't stay out of trouble, allowing a run and effectively killing the Braves run line. That game ended up being a strange one and I'm sending positive vibes to Patrick Corbin, who left the game in the first inning.
We'll start the day off today with a first-inning under play in New York. The visiting Pirates will be sending Roansy Contreras (5-4, 3.24 ERA) to the mound. Contreras has been one of my favorites this year, considering he's been nothing short of perfect in the first inning this season. He's gone through each of his 15 starts, seven of which were on the road, without allowing a first-inning tally this season.
The Yankees will be sending Luis Severino (5-3, 3.45 ERA) to the mound. Severino has been solid both overall and the first inning this season, allowing a run in just two of nine starts in Yankee Stadium, and in just three of 13 starts overall. He should have no issue getting through a Pirates lineup that's been held scoreless in the opening frame in 82.3% of games overall, 84.2% on the road, and in eight of their last 10.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -120, my model gives the under implied odds of 65.18%, good for "true" odds of -187. There's always the threat of an Aaron Judge home run in the bottom of the first, but I'll back Contreras to stay perfect under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium tonight.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SD -123
STL: Miles Mikolas | SD: Blake Snell
We'll head out West to San Diego for another first inning under. We'll back Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas (11-12, 3.46 ERA). It's kind of shocking that Mikolas has accrued so many losses this season, given how well he's pitching and how well the Cardinals have played. Nevertheless, he's allowed a first-inning run in just two of 16 starts on the road as well as six of 30 starts overall.
He'll match up with San Diego southpaw Blake Snell (7-9, 3.85 ERA). Snell has had a pretty solid bounce-back season for the Padres this year and has been excellent in the first inning. First-inning tallies have been few and far between with Snell on the mound, as he's allowed one in just two of 12 starts at Petco Park and in just three of 21 starts overall.
Despite both of these offenses (likely) leading their respective clubs to the playoffs, they haven't jumped on opposing pitchers in the first inning too often. The Cardinals have scored in roughly 32.4% of first innings overall, but that number drops to just 25.7% when on the road. The Padres on the other hand have scored in 24% of first innings overall and in 26.1% of first innings at home. The Cardinals have been held scoreless in nine of their last 10 while the Padres have been held scoreless in eight of their last 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -138, which is a surprising number given the low game total of 7.5. We'll take this value though, considering my model gives the under a 63.73% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -176. Let's avenge the unfortunate Braves loss last evening and go 2-0 today.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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