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Thunder Dan's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/20/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's a loaded day of baseball today with games starting as early as 12:20 PM EST and quite a bit of afternoon action across Major League Baseball. The regular season is winding down and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. I am not saying that I won't bet on teams that are out of the playoffs, but I do think we have to weigh the motivation factor here a little when looking at some of these matchups down the stretch.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 20, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Astros
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU (-102)
BAL: Kyle Bradish| HOU: Cristian Javier
The Orioles might be the team that is the most fun in all of MLB. They are in the midst of a pennant race after being the laughing stock of the AL East for years and it's great to see such a storied franchise be relevant again. They have good young players and should be contenders for a while given the solid core of talent that they have up at the big league level now.
Baltimore is looking to complete the sweep of the Astros this afternoon in what could be a preview of a playoff series (ALCS maybe?) The Orioles have won four in a row and had a seven-game win streak already this month. This team backs down to no one and they have the pitching and hitting to compete with anyone on any given night.
I am a huge fan of Kyle Bradish. He's had a major breakout season and he's been the backbone of this rotation. He consistently pounds the strike zone, doesn't walk many guys, and has given Baltimore six or more good innings just about every time out.
I am also a Javier hater. I think the guy is pretty overrated and his stats this year prove that last year was more of a fluke than who he really is. He's a two-pitch guy who can get himself in trouble with walks and he gives up too many long balls. The Orioles hitters punish pitchers like that and I think Baltimore has the clear advantage in pitching today.
This line opened up dead even, but it looks like bettors are favoring the Astros so far. Not me - give me the Orioles and I will take the better odds, thanks!
Pick: BAL ML (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA (-118)
NYM: Kodai Senga | MIA: Eury Perez
This is an exciting pitching matchup between a guy who should be getting some Cy Young votes (Senga) and a young fireballer who looks like he could contend for one someday (Perez). The Mets have nothing to play for but pride and to their credit, they haven't packed it in yet. But they will have a tough task scoring runs against Perez, who sports a 3.06 ERA over his first 88 innings in the majors.
Senga is the real story here as he's been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball in the second half. He has 10 or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 13 starts going all the way back to the middle of June.
This has all the makings of a pitchers duel between two really good arms and some mediocre offenses. If we are looking for trends to back the play, consider that the Mets have the best cover rate on the under of any team in the majors at 58%. Miami also covers the under at 53.4% (the 9th best mark) so both teams have been in a lot of low-scoring affairs this season.
This line is teetering between 7.5 and 7, so grab the 7.5 while you can. I won't be surprised if it settles at 7.0 before the day is done.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
Bonus Bet: Toronto ML (-115) - It's Kevin Gausman day! The Yankees have a solid converted starter in Michael King, but their lineup is slumping and Toronto has their ace on the bump. Give me the Blue Jays on the road in game that means something to them!
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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