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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/20/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another week of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 20, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 73-71-2, -15.23 units
- Sides: 34-34-1, -11.72 units
- Totals: 37-36-1, -5.21 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -200
DET: Joey Wentz | BAL: Austin Voth
We finished 1-1 on Sunday, with Pirates starter Johan Oviedo allowing his first run in the first inning all season. We'll run it back with another first-inning under play today, this time in Baltimore. We'll be backing Joey Wentz (1-2, 4.15 ERA), who's making his fifth start of the season for Detroit. He's been pretty good in the first inning, allowing a run in just one of his first four starts, all the way back in May. He's a perfect 1-0 on the road, and we'll look for him to stay perfect tonight.
The Orioles will be sending a familiar name in these articles, Austin Voth (5-2, 4.36 ERA) to the mound. While Voth isn't "perfect" in the first inning anymore, he's still been pretty darn good. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of his eight starts at Camden Yards and in just two of 14 starts overall.
Neither offense has been particularly powerful in the first inning this season. The Tigers have been held scoreless in the first inning in 87.1% of games on the road and in 80.7% of games overall, as well as eight of their last ten. The Orioles have been better, but not much, being held scoreless in 77.5% of games at home and in 78.6% of games overall. They've also been held scoreless in eight of their last ten opening frames.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -125, my model gives the under implied odds of 67.66%, good for "true" odds of -209.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -335
WSH: Patrick Corbin | ATL: Charlie Morton
We'll head down to Atlanta for the second play of the day. While I would never consider betting a first-inning under with Patrick Corbin on the mound, I will happily bet against him.
Corbin (6-18, 6.11 ERA), has been nothing more than an innings eater for Washington this season. He's allowed a 39.7% hard contact rate this season, though his 4.13 xFIP does show that he's gotten quite a bit unlucky. He has strung together a couple of really starts over the last month, but it should be noted that he's allowed 15 earned runs across 13.2 innings against Atlanta this season.
The Braves will be sending Charlie Morton (8-6, 4.17 ERA) to the mound this evening. Morton, like Corbin, has been a bit unlucky and should be due for some positive regression. Morton's 28.3% strikeout rate, 29.5% hard contact rate, and 3.59 xFIP show that he's been much better than his 4.17 ERA has led on. He projects to just a 24.06% hard contact rate and 3.41 xFIP tonight against the Nats, a team who he threw seven innings of two-run ball against back on July 8.
I'll be looking at the Braves runline tonight, which FanDuel Sportsbook has at -162 currently. My model gives the Braves a 63.65% chance of covering the run line, good for "true" odds of -175. With a projected final score of 6.1-3.84, I'll happily deal with the juice here and look to start the week 2-0!
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-162) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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