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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/19/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. We smashed yesterday with our bats but couldn't get the arms right. I am looking for a bounce back today with some bets. I know it’s football season, but here at RotoBaller, we're still locked into baseball. I hope you all were as well. We’re back at it on the betting side today, so let’s pick some winners.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Cardinals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL (-125)
MIL: Trevor Megill, Adrian Houser| STL: Drew Rom
We start our action today in St. Louis with a matchup between division rivals. The Brewers will send out opener Trevor Megill, followed by bulk reliever Adrian Houser, while the Cardinals will send out southpaw Drew Rom. Congrats to Adam Wainwright on his 200th career win yesterday. Although this season has been dreadful, he has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the big leagues over the last decade and deserves to land in Cooperstown.
Rom has been awful since his call-up to the big leagues. He has a 5.58 SIERA, 1.76 WHIP, and an abysmal 6.1% SwStr% since August 1. The Brewers have been swinging it against left-hand pitching as of late. Over the same period, they have a 115 wRC+, .343 wOBA, and a .442 SLG against left-hand pitching.
On the other side, Trevor Megill has been dynamite as an opener. Since August 1, he has had an elite 1.25 SIERA, 0.79 WHIP, and a 21.8% SwStr%. Houser is in the same boat with a 3.66 SIERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The Brewers are playing meaningful games here as they try to secure the NL Central and should be able to secure a victory here this evening.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX (-162)
BOS: Tanner Houck | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi
In our second game of the night, we will be attacking a total with a matchup between the struggling Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Houck. Since his return from the IL, Eovaldi leads the slate with a 5.99 SIERA, 2.43 WHIP, and a .355 BAA. His opponent, Tanner Houck, has a 4.44 SIERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a .272 BAA in the same span. I don't love the park as Globe Life plays as a pitcher's park, but we have two struggling arms squaring off against formidable offenses tonight.
The Red Sox, on the season, owns a 102 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and a .439 SLG against right-hand pitching. Over the last 30 days, they have a 106 wRC+, .333 wOBA, and a .440 SLG against the split, which aligns with their season totals. The Rangers have been a top-five team in baseball against right-hand pitching this season. They have a 113 wRC+, a .337 wOBA, and a .453 SLG on the year. Look for runs to be scored early and often here, and let's grab the over in this matchup.
Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-118) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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