X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/28/23)

Kenta Maeda - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/28/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.

Attention, fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, August 28, 2023.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks

2023 Regular Season: 61-47-3 (+0.51 units)

I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Twins

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -167 
CLE: Xzavion Curry| MIL: Kenta Maeda

I’ll start things off out in Minnesota as the Guardians come in after an extra-innings victory in Toronto. While that win hurt us yesterday, we’ll be “running it back” against the Guardians tonight. 

The Guardians will send Xzavion Curry (3-2, 3.52 ERA) to the mound. Curry is a bonafide candidate for regression, as seen by his 4.99 xERA and 5.28 xFIP. He’s allowed nine earned runs across his last 13 innings, and projects to a 6.21 SIERA tonight. He draws a bad matchup against the Twins tonight, who project to a .375 wOBA against him. 

It’ll be Kenda Maeda taking the ball for the Twins tonight. Maeda (3-7, 4.22 ERA) has had a rough two starts following a really strong stretch by him. He, unlike Curry, is due for some positive regression; bringing in a 3.76 xERA and 3.86 xFIP. He projects to a 3.59 SIERA against a Guardians offense that projects to just a .315 wOBA. While the Twins have a strong pitching and lineup advantage, the bullpen is their weakness. We’ll keep the bullpen out of it and run with the Twins' F5 moneyline, which we can get at -168 on FanDuel.

Pick: Twins F5 Moneyline (-168), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win  0.6 units.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Rockies

O/U: 12.5 | Moneyline: COL +195
ATL: Bryce Elder | COL: Austin Gomber

I’ll head out to Coors Field tonight as the Braves head into town. I don’t think I’ve ever taken an over this high -- but it’s hard to fade the over with a generational offense in Coors. We can get this at 12.5 for -105 odds on DraftKings, and that’s what we’ll do.

It’ll be Bryce Elder (10-4, 3.39 ERA) on the mound for the Braves tonight. You wouldn’t think a 3.39 ERA would be a smart choice for an over, even in Coors Field. However, he is due for some regression, bringing in a 4.24 xERA and 4.45 xFIP while projecting to a 5.11 SIERA. He’ll take on a Rockies offense that projects to just a .348 wOBA and 39.83% ground ball rate. 

The Rockies will hand the ball to Austin Gomber (9-9, 5.48 ERA). It’s surprising that Gomber brings in a 9-9 record, considering how poorly he’s pitched this season. He brings in a 5.51 xERA and 5.05 xFIP and has allowed 11 earned runs in his 11.1 innings pitched. He projects to a 5.59 SIERA today against this vaunted Braves offense that projects to a .380 wOBA and 39.69% hard contact rate. 

Both offenses are projecting strongly here, so I’ll take this seemingly ridiculous over and run with it.

Pick: Over 12.5 (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.95 units.

Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Dan Vladar Links Up with Flyers on Two-Year Deal
NHL

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact with Oilers
NHL

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
NHL

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NHL

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NHL

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
NHL

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
NHL

Vladislav Gavrikov Inks Seven-Year Deal with Rangers
NHL

Tanner Jeannot Moves to Boston
NHL

Corey Perry Joins Kings on One-Year Deal
K'Andre Miller

Hurricanes Pick Up K'Andre Miller
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Houston Rockets

Jeff Green Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF