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It is Wednesday, August 24th, and we have a split day-night slate in baseball today as we do with most Wednesdays! 28 of the 30 teams are in action in some form today and we are back with a set of some free picks to help navigate today's MLB action.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS -120
CWS: Lucas Giolito| BAL: Spenser Watkins
In a game like this, what does one side with more? The surface stats or the peripheral stats? Lucas Giolito has a 5.34 ERA but a 3.61 xFIP. Spenser Watkins has a 4.82 xFIP but a 4.04 ERA. Who is the better pitcher? In the past, I'd argue Giolito is but having large differences like this late in the season is not great.
The Orioles offense has scored more runs than the White Sox. They also have a higher ISO and slightly higher wRC+. One could argue that overall the Orioles and White Sox are similar offenses but the Orioles are slightly better.
As far as bullpens go, the Orioles have a 3.16 bullpen ERA while the White Sox have a 4.15 bullpen ERA. Looking at xFIP, Baltimore has the fourth-best bullpen xFIP while Chicago is somewhere in the middle. Regardless of whether one looks like ERA or xFIP, the Orioles have a better bullpen than the White Sox.
This is a situation where I want to back the Orioles. They are at plus money, at home, and have a better offense and bullpen for sure. And while the starting pitching situation is a predicament, Watkins has pitched better than Giolito this far into the season as silly as that is to type out.
Pick: Baltimore Moneyline (+100), DraftKings/BetMGM/Caesar's/PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: ARI -130
ARI: Zac Gallen| KC: Brady Singer
In Kansas City, we have a fun pitching matchup between two of the better pitchers in the league: Zac Gallen and Brady Singer. Singer has finally had that breakout season with a 3.27 ERA, a 3.36 xFIP, and a 19.1% K-BB%.
Gallen continues to be very solid in his own right. He has a 2.78 ERA, a 3.46 xFIP, and an 18.5% K-BB%. Both Singer and Gallen are pretty close here and have very similar seasons despite Gallen having the better ERA.
Offensively, the Royals are not good though. The good news is that neither are the Diamondbacks. The Royals have a 92 wRC+ while Arizona has a 93 wRC!
Both teams have bad bullpens too. Arizona has a 4.31 bullpen ERA (seventh-worst) and a 4.35 xFIP (third-worst). Kansas City has a 4.76 bullpen ERA (third-worst) and a 4.50 xFIP (worst). If either team has a lead, that lead isn't safe in this one.
While I was originally looking at the Kansas City win market at +110, their lead after five innings market is at +145. And I ask myself, if I want to bet on Kansas City because it's going to be a close game, would it be more likely Singer outpitches Gallen or less likely? I'd rather take the +145 and remove the bullpens from the equation than take the +110 and hope the Royals bullpen outpitches the Diamondbacks!
Pick: Kansas City Moneyline F5 (+145), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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