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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/18/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 18, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 56-42-3 (+2.81 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Yankees
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYY -174
BOS: Bryan Bello | NYY: Jhony Brito
I'll begin things in Yankee Stadium as the Red Sox will come into the Bronx for a weekend series. This series doesn't have the juice that it normally would, as the Sox come into this one 3.5 games back and the Yankees 6.5 games back. It should still be a fun series, though.
It'll be Brayan Bello (8-7, 3.81 ERA) taking the ball for Boston. While Bello is due for some regression, bringing in a 4.20 xERA and 3.97 xFIP, his 4.15 SIERA does give the Red Sox a minor pitching advantage here. He also has the advantage of taking on a struggling Yankees offense, who scored just three runs in three games against the Braves earlier this week. The "Bombers" project to just a .308 wOBA against Bello tonight.
It'll be Jhony Brito (4-5, 4.76 ERA) most likely taking the ball for the Yankees. Brito hasn't started a game since July 31, when he allowed five runs in four innings against the Rays. He's pitched well of late, allowing just one run in his last 6.2 innings. He comes into this one projecting some regression with a 5.29 xERA, 5.09 xFIP, and 4.52 SIERA. The Red Sox are projected to hit home around really well in this one, with a projected .342 wOBA.
The Yankees have a slight bullpen advantage here, so I'll back the Red Sox in the first five here. I was able to get this at -140 on FanDuel, which I think is a more than fair line.
Pick: Red Sox F5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.71 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Athletics
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK -390
BAL: Kyle Gibson | OAK: Luis Medina
I'll head out to the Coliseum as the Orioles head into town to start a weekend series.
Kyle Gibson (11-7, 4.89 ERA) will be the one taking the ball for Baltimore. He's had a poor season up to this point on the surface but is due for some positive regression as he heads into this start against the O's. He brings in a 4.50 xERA, 4.17 xFIP, and 3.83 SIERA. Who better to positively regress against than the A's, who project to just a .289 wOBA against him tonight.
The O's bats have been a bit quiet the last couple of days, but they'll look to surge against Oakland starter Luis Medina (3-8, 5.31 ERA). Medina, like Gibson, is due for some positive regression, coming into this one with a 4.50 xERA and 4.58 xFIP. However, he projects to a 5.02 SIERA in this one. The Orioles' offense will be hungry and brings in a projected .321 wOBA against Medina in this one.
Perhaps it's because Gibson is on the mound, but while some may consider this line to be "juiced," I think it's rather low all things considered. The line I'm talking about of course is the Orioles' F5 moneyline, which we can get at -168 on FanDuel.
Pick: Orioles F5 Moneyline (-168), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.6 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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