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Thunder Dan's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
It's a gorgeous day in August here in Pennsylvania and it looks like some awesome weather across this great nation of ours for baseball. I got to take in a Double-A game with my mom for her birthday last night and see fireworks after and I was reminded of just how awesome it is to be able to enjoy the finer things in life and take a step back from all of it once in a while. Anyways, I am covering this piece today for my good buddy John Brubaker, and I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I handicap MLB games just about every day of the week and you can subscribe to my free substack here and sign up for daily emails with all of my favorite MLB bets, including player props.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, August 13th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Blue Jays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TOR -125
TOR: Mitch White | CLE: Triston McKenzie
I have a weird feeling that this could blow up in my face, but how can we not like the Guardians as underdogs today? They blew the doors off Berrios last night and the Jays’ bats were silenced by none other than…Cal Quantrill?
Using the first game in the series to predict the next one is dumb, so I am not leaning on that entirely. My model has this game as pretty much a pick 'em, and if that's the case then I want the underdog and the better odds that come with betting on them.
There is obviously some risk here. I know Triston McKenzie is a reverse splits pitcher and this Toronto lineup is dangerous against righties, but I have to give Cleveland the pitching edge here today as the Blue Jays are rolling with Mitch White. Cleveland has the better bullpen, too, and this lineup of theirs is tough to get out (one of the lowest strikeout rates against RHP in baseball), even if they don’t have a bunch of power bats.
The Guardians are scrappy and there isn't any way to quantify that. But if we are playing trends, consider that Toronto has lost six of their last ten games while Cleveland has been surging with seven wins in their last ten games.
Pick: CLE ML (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Royals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAD -255
LAD: Andrew Heaney | KCR: Brad Keller
The Dodgers should roll here again today and that massive money line is about as big as you'll see for a road team. Andrew Heaney has been very effective since returning to the rotation and the Royals are just completely overmatched in every facet of the game (lineup, starting pitching, bullpen) in this series. Brad Keller is a perfectly average pitcher who relies on groundballs and soft contact, but the Dodgers will load up on lefties against him. And like we saw last night, you can only hold them off for so long until eventually, they break through, and when they do - the flood gates often open up.
LA has the best offense over the last month, averaging nearly 6.5 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Royals have been held to just 4.1 runs per game and while they have some exciting young prospects in their lineup now, they also have to experience the growing pains that come with that as these young hitters settle in at the big league level.
I usually don’t bet sides/totals over -150, so I was happy to see this one still very bettable while San Diego, for example, is already up to -175 on their RL (I will bet their team total instead for exposure).
Pick: LAD -1.5 (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays.
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