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Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/12/22)

shane bieber fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Justin Dunbar's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

Well, folks, it's the last week until the All Star break. Between Pete Alonso going for the three-peat in the home run derby with Albert Pujols joining him, as well as some very interesting All-Star choices, next week is shaping up to be very entertaining. For now, though, baseball continues on!

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 12, 2022, for the 16-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!

Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. A doubleheader between the White Sox and Guardians helps add an extra game to a full slate, while there are several critical matchups between playoff contenders. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!

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MLB Betting Projection Model Results

*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Guardians

O/U: 8,5 | Moneyline: CHW -115

CHW: Davis Martin | CLE: Shane Bieber

Pick: Pittsburgh ML (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook

These two teams may be neck-and-neck in terms of record – both sitting close to .500 – but the reaction to each getting to where they are couldn't be more different. Whereas this is about where the Guardians were expected to be based on preseason expectations, the White Sox were expected to contend for a World Series. Thus, this season has been a great disappointment for them, and for at least the first game of this doubleheader, that will continue to be the case.

It's been a strange season for Shane Bieber, to say the least. The 2020 Cy Young award winner is sitting nearly four MPH slower with his fastball than in 2022, yet is continuing to perform at an extremely high level (18.7% K-BB, 3.47 skill interactive ERA/SIERA). It's impossible to pinpoint exactly why, but a lot of the credit has to go to him having two breaking balls with a whiff rate over 37%, as well as absolutely stellar command (6.3% BB). At some point, it's hard to dispute the results, especially considering the White Sox have the seventh-worst offense versus right-handed pitching, per weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+).

Cleveland, meanwhile, still ranks in the top ten in wRC+ versus righties this season and faces a pitcher in Davis Martin with a projected ERA of 5.64 from ZiPs. As Franmil Reyes continues to get back on track, Josh Naylor gets back in the lineup after dealing with an injury, and with talented prospect Nolan Jones up at the big-league level, this is an offense that could easily start to perform at the level we saw them at the beginning of June.

Wait, the team with arguably the better-performing offense who also has the substantial pitching advantage is the underdog here? That almost sounds too good to be true! Maybe it is, but by all measures here, it's hard to believe they are at least a sizable favorite here. We still may have to get used to the new name, but consider them the Guardians of second place for this game!

Pick: Cleveland Moneyline (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook

 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Nationals

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WSH -112
SEA: Chris Flexen | WSH: Josiah Gray

Coming into the season, the Mariners had one clear goal: end the team's 20-year playoff drought. After all, between signing Robbie Ray, trading for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, while also promoting top prospects such as Julio Rodriguezto the MLB level, they were ready to go "all-in" this season, which makes sense after a successful year in 2021.

Unfortunately for them, things did not go as planned. As of June 20th, the team was ten games below .500 and looked like a long shot for the playoffs. Now? After winning 16 of their last 19, Seattle is not only three games above .500, but if the season ended today, they'd qualify for the final postseason spot. What a turnaround!

When looking at this from a season-long level, the Mariners rank 8th in wRC+, even if there remains a dichotomy between their runs scored per game (24th). At some point, those two data points will come closer to one another, and with wRC+ being the more stable statistic (not context-dependent), I'd count on that happening in a satisfactory way for Seattle. Going up against Nationals starter Josiah Gray, who historically has struggled with command, them being in the top-five in walk rate is notable, while they also rank in the upper half of the league in barrel rate. In other words, this is a very talented offense that is likely to continue to roll here.

Although it's been a bit of a rough season for Mariners starter Chris Flexen from a peripheral standpoint (4.87 SIERA), this is a good matchup for him. See, as a natural fly-ball pitcher, he's been prone to barrels (10.4% barrel rate) this year, but he's facing a Nationals offense ranked in the bottom-five in isolated power (ISO), as well as in the bottom-ten in wRC+. Plus, he's supported by the #3 bullpen based on SIERA, whereas Washington ranks in the bottom ten in that metric. That certainly evens out any sort of pitching gap here, while both offense and defense are certainly in Seattle's favor. Yet, this game is essentially priced as a coin-flip. Maybe there's some voodoo magic here I'm not aware of, but this certainly looks like a juicy spot for the surging M's.

Pick:  Seattle MoneyLine (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook

 

 

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
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Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
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Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
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Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
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LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
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to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
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David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
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Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
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Dealing with Wrist Injury
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Gets Back In The Win Column
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Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

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Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
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Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
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Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
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LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
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DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
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Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
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CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
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John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
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Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
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Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
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Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

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Alex Bowman

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Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
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Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

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Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
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Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
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Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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Looks To Return To The Win Column
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In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

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