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Well, folks, it's the last week until the All Star break. Between Pete Alonso going for the three-peat in the home run derby with Albert Pujols joining him, as well as some very interesting All-Star choices, next week is shaping up to be very entertaining. For now, though, baseball continues on!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 12, 2022, for the 16-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. A doubleheader between the White Sox and Guardians helps add an extra game to a full slate, while there are several critical matchups between playoff contenders. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Guardians
O/U: 8,5 | Moneyline: CHW -115
CHW: Davis Martin | CLE: Shane Bieber
Pick: Pittsburgh ML (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook
These two teams may be neck-and-neck in terms of record – both sitting close to .500 – but the reaction to each getting to where they are couldn't be more different. Whereas this is about where the Guardians were expected to be based on preseason expectations, the White Sox were expected to contend for a World Series. Thus, this season has been a great disappointment for them, and for at least the first game of this doubleheader, that will continue to be the case.
It's been a strange season for Shane Bieber, to say the least. The 2020 Cy Young award winner is sitting nearly four MPH slower with his fastball than in 2022, yet is continuing to perform at an extremely high level (18.7% K-BB, 3.47 skill interactive ERA/SIERA). It's impossible to pinpoint exactly why, but a lot of the credit has to go to him having two breaking balls with a whiff rate over 37%, as well as absolutely stellar command (6.3% BB). At some point, it's hard to dispute the results, especially considering the White Sox have the seventh-worst offense versus right-handed pitching, per weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+).
Cleveland, meanwhile, still ranks in the top ten in wRC+ versus righties this season and faces a pitcher in Davis Martin with a projected ERA of 5.64 from ZiPs. As Franmil Reyes continues to get back on track, Josh Naylor gets back in the lineup after dealing with an injury, and with talented prospect Nolan Jones up at the big-league level, this is an offense that could easily start to perform at the level we saw them at the beginning of June.
Wait, the team with arguably the better-performing offense who also has the substantial pitching advantage is the underdog here? That almost sounds too good to be true! Maybe it is, but by all measures here, it's hard to believe they are at least a sizable favorite here. We still may have to get used to the new name, but consider them the Guardians of second place for this game!
Pick: Cleveland Moneyline (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Nationals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WSH -112
SEA: Chris Flexen | WSH: Josiah Gray
Coming into the season, the Mariners had one clear goal: end the team's 20-year playoff drought. After all, between signing Robbie Ray, trading for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, while also promoting top prospects such as Julio Rodriguezto the MLB level, they were ready to go "all-in" this season, which makes sense after a successful year in 2021.
Unfortunately for them, things did not go as planned. As of June 20th, the team was ten games below .500 and looked like a long shot for the playoffs. Now? After winning 16 of their last 19, Seattle is not only three games above .500, but if the season ended today, they'd qualify for the final postseason spot. What a turnaround!
When looking at this from a season-long level, the Mariners rank 8th in wRC+, even if there remains a dichotomy between their runs scored per game (24th). At some point, those two data points will come closer to one another, and with wRC+ being the more stable statistic (not context-dependent), I'd count on that happening in a satisfactory way for Seattle. Going up against Nationals starter Josiah Gray, who historically has struggled with command, them being in the top-five in walk rate is notable, while they also rank in the upper half of the league in barrel rate. In other words, this is a very talented offense that is likely to continue to roll here.
Although it's been a bit of a rough season for Mariners starter Chris Flexen from a peripheral standpoint (4.87 SIERA), this is a good matchup for him. See, as a natural fly-ball pitcher, he's been prone to barrels (10.4% barrel rate) this year, but he's facing a Nationals offense ranked in the bottom-five in isolated power (ISO), as well as in the bottom-ten in wRC+. Plus, he's supported by the #3 bullpen based on SIERA, whereas Washington ranks in the bottom ten in that metric. That certainly evens out any sort of pitching gap here, while both offense and defense are certainly in Seattle's favor. Yet, this game is essentially priced as a coin-flip. Maybe there's some voodoo magic here I'm not aware of, but this certainly looks like a juicy spot for the surging M's.
Pick: Seattle MoneyLine (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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