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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's a stacked 15-game MLB schedule this Friday, June 9 evening with plenty of value on the board! It's a lovely day to get in on the action while getting our weekend started on the right note!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL (-190)
KC: Daniel Lynch| BAL: Tyler Wells
The Royals and Orioles open up a weekend series tonight in Baltimore and the home side should be able to handily win Friday's series opener.
Getting the ball for the home side is right-hander Tyler Wells who is in the midst of an impressive season. The 28-year-old has worked to a 3.29 ERA on the season but his 3.66 SIERA backs up his excellent work to this point. Wells has displayed fantastic control via a tiny 5.3% BB%, helping him to a dynamite 21.3% K-BB% on the campaign.
On the other side is left-hander Daniel Lynch who should actually be in for positive regression moving forward. The southpaw owns a 4.35 ERA but also a 2.22 FIP and 3.85 SIERA. Of course, this is just a two-start sample from a pitcher sporting a 5.27 ERA across 44 career big-league starts including a 5.13 mark across 27 starts in the 2022 campaign.
The offensive advantage is also with the Orioles in this one. They sit 10th with a .336 wOBA against left-handed pitching while the Royals enter this one ranked 29th with a .288 wOBA against righties.
Finally, the Orioles' bullpen has been one of the best in the business while the Royals have been among the worst groups in baseball. The O's sit fifth with a 3.43 bullpen ERA and also first with a 3.41 FIP while Royals relievers have combined for a 4.90 bullpen ERA which sits 29th. Their 4.01 FIP moves up into a share of 15th but there's little doubt there's a notable advantage here for the Orioles as well.
Add it up and the Orioles should be able to take care of the visiting Royals by at least two runs Friday night.
Pick: Orioles run line -1.5 (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins vs. Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CWS (-130)
MIA: Eury Perez| CWS: Dylan Cease
It's an interleague tilt tonight in the south side of Chicago as the Miami Marlins pay a rare visit to Guaranteed Rate Field to battle the White Sox.
Getting the ball for Miami is 20-year-old right-hander Eury Perez who has impressed so far this season. In five starts spanning 24 innings, Perez owns a 2.25 ERA but he also owns a 4.28 FIP and 4.60 SIERA while walking 11.1% of the hitters he has faced to this point. He has allowed just a .193 batting average against but his .230 BABIP should trend in the wrong direction moving forward.
As for the White Sox, it's ace Dylan Cease toeing the rubber. He hasn't been at his best this season, sitting with a 4.63 ERA to this point while he also owns a 4.27 FIP and 4.35 SIERA. Walks have been an issue with Cease as well with a 10.6% BB% that is actually identical to his career mark. However, he does sport a 4.06 ERA at home versus a 5.34 mark on the road.
It has certainly been a disappointing season for the Sox as their offense and bullpen have struggled. The Marlins haven't been very good in those areas, either. The key is the regression on the horizon for the young Marlins righty as Perez's SIERA is well over two full runs worse than his surface ERA.
Add it up and the White Sox should be able to grab a moneyline victory behind their ace in this one tonight.
Pick: White Sox moneyline (-130, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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