Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/23/22)

June 23, 2022

Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/23/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, June 23, 2022.  

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer. 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Reds

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -215
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | CIN: Hunter Greene

The Dodgers and Reds wrap up their series in Cincinnati today. Clayton Kershaw and Hunter Greene will face off on the mound. Kershaw has a 2.94 SIERA (best of all the pitchers today) with a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 4.1% walk rate. Hunter Greene has been somewhat unlucky as he has a 3.60 SIERA but a 5.26 ERA. Greene also has a 30.1% strikeout rate but a 9.9% walk rate too. The Dodgers have the edge with the starting pitching but it isn't as drastic as one might think. The bullpens are a different story though.

Cincinnati's bullpen has a 3.95 SIERA and 5.15 ERA, which is the worst bullpen ERA in the league. They have a walk rate of 11.4%, they have a hard-hit rate of 32.8%, and the third-highest flyball rate of 41.9%. Pitching in that tiny ballpark of theirs with this bullpen is a disaster. The Dodgers have the eighth-best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen SIERA in the league. It's not even close to how much better it is.

Offensively, it's also a landslide for Los Angeles. The Dodgers are fourth in runs scored, second in OBP, and fourth in ISO. Cincinnati is 20th in runs scored, 21st in OBP, and 21st in ISO.

At first glance, it was confusing seeing the line just at nine runs but now it makes a little more sense. The Reds are a bad offense going against a great starting pitcher and a great bullpen. They might only score a run or two and could easily get shut out. That means that in order to go over nine runs, you'd have to bet on the Dodgers putting up nine or more runs. I think the Dodgers can do that, given the ballpark they are playing in and the bullpen they will face. Hunter Greene has also allowed 2.35 HR/9, so he is having issues keeping the ball in the yard.

The line is too juiced to go with the Dodgers but I'll take a stab at the Dodgers blowout and go over the run total here.

Pick: OVER 9.0 Runs (+100), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Brewers

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -112
STL: Dakota Hudson | MIL: Jason Alexander

The Cardinals and Brewers wrap up their series by putting two gas cans on the mound and seeing which team scores the most. Dakota Hudson has a 5.05 SIERA, a 13.4% strikeout rate, and an 11% walk rate. Jason Alexander has a 5.31 SIERA, an 8% strikeout rate, and a 9% walk rate.

Saint Louis' bullpen has a 3.88 SIERA, which is the eighth-worst in the league. Milwaukee's is 3.41, which is the eighth-best in the league. When comparing ERA, Saint Louis and Milwaukee are close with Saint Louis having the slight edge. There is not a huge discrepancy between 0.47 SIERA points. These teams have similar bullpen effectiveness that is towards the middle to bottom of the league.

Offensively, Saint Louis has scored the third-most runs. They also have the seventh-best OBP, and are 15th in ISO. Milwaukee is 13th in runs scored, 20th in OBP, but seventh in ISO. Saint Louis is better at getting on base and scoring, while Milwaukee has more power threats in their lineup. Saint Louis has the edge here but with each team going against bad pitching, we could see some fireworks.

Pick: Saint Louis Moneyline (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units, OVER 9.5 runs (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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