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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/25/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, May 25, 2022, for the seven-game 6:40 PM Eastern slate.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 13-23-2 overall on the season, down 3.77 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black.
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHW -175
BOS: Rich Hill| CHW: Lucas Giolito
We have Rich Hill against Lucas Giolito tonight, meaning it's a slam dunk that the White Sox win right? Not so fast.
While Giolito is obviously the better pitcher, with a 2.67 xFIP and a 34.6% strikeout rate, the rest of the team is somewhat shaky. First, the offense. Yes, they have been playing better, but this still is not a great offense right now. They have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball, they have the fifth-lowest ISO (.125), and they have the lowest walk rate in the game. Additionally, their bullpen ERA of 4.28 is the eighth-worst in the game too.
Looking at the Red Sox, yes they are outmatched at starting pitcher but the rest of the team looks better. They are 10th in runs scored and ninth in ISO (.153). Their bullpen ERA is middle of the league with a 3.78 ERA.
Boston has the better lineup and better bullpen but is this large of an underdog? It doesn't make sense.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+152), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -150
PHI: Ranger Suarez | ATL: Charlie Morton
The analysis for this game will be straight to the point. This should be a high-scoring game. Ranger Suarez has a 4.02 xFIP. Charlie Morton has a 4.76 xFIP. The Phillies' bullpen ERA is 4.15 -- bottom-10 in the league. Offensively, the Phillies have scored the eighth-most runs in the league with the eighth highest ISO. The Braves have scored the 17th-most runs in the league but have the seventh-highest ISO in the league. There are some weather concerns, but if this game plays, it will be difficult to not see runs scored at a high rate tonight.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110), Pointsbet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA -159
PHI: Glenn Otto| LAA: Reid Detmers
Glenn Otto has a 4.88 xFIP with a K-BB% of just 4.6%. He is going to face the Angels, the team with the most runs scored in the American League, and the team with the third-highest ISO in all of baseball. He will be backed by a middle-of-the-road bullpen with a 3.66 ERA and 22 home runs allowed. In DFS, the Angels should be the most popular team rostered.
Los Angeles is going to start Reid Detmers. Detmers has a 4.44 xFIP and a 10.4% K-BB% and has allowed an HR/9 of 1.30 this year. He isn't the type of pitcher teams are afraid of either. Texas has not performed well offensively, they have scored the 22nd- most runs in baseball and have just the 22nd-highest ISO in baseball. When facing average to below-average pitchers, sometimes below-average offenses do well, though. The Angels bullpen is middle of the road as well with a 3.82 ERA.
In addition to the pitching matchup being one that hitters should get excited about, the weather here will be nice: 70 degrees and the wind blowing out to left field. This is a great run-scoring environment and I believe just that will happen.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110), Pointsbet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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