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Happy Hump Day, everyone! Wednesdays are always interesting slates as we have several series that wrap up with afternoon games and therefore we get baseball pretty much all day. Those "getaway" games can be tricky, too, as teams roll out some bench players in lineups and so sometimes it makes sense to see some lineups before making your final wagers on those games.
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As always, I have some thoughts as to where we should place our money today when it comes to betting on these games. In this article, I'll give you my favorite money lines, game totals, team totals, run lines, F5s - you name it! I have a few I really like here today so let's take a look, shall we?
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona @ Philadelphia
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ARI -115
ARI: Zac Gallen | PHI: Ranger Suarez
The Snakes get their ace on the hill today for this matinee and I would expect Zac Gallen to bounce back after he looked human against the Pirates in his last start.
This line is far too close in my opinion for the pitching mismatch that we have. Gallen has been a top-5 pitcher in baseball, while the Phillies are rolling out lefty Ranger Suarez, who has a 4.33 SIERA and still seems a bit rusty after missing the first six weeks of the season.
Arizona is a tough matchup for lefties, too, as they have a .322 wOBA and a 100 wRC+ vs. Southpaws on the season. Christian Walker has been lefties pay for any mistakes they leave out over the plate all season as evidenced below.
Christian Walker with a two-run SHOT to start the game for the Snakes! pic.twitter.com/kL9KPrwyhP
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 17, 2023
The Diamondbacks have been solid on the road, too. Their 15-10 road record is the fourth-best in baseball. I think this ML should be closer to -150 than -115, so I am happy to take the value on the Arizona side and bank on Gallen getting back on track against the Phillies in this one.
Pick: ARI ML (-115, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - St. Louis @ Cincinnati
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: STL -155
STL: Steven Matz | CIN: Ben Lively
I think this might be one of our first 11-run totals outside Coors this season and for good reason as the Great American Ballpark continues to produce a lot of runs and has become known as "Coors East" to many in the baseball world.
We get a few mediocre starters here in Matz and Lively. Matz has allowed a ton of baserunners and will have to face some guys who hit lefties well in the first inning (Jonathan India and Spencer Steer). Ben Lively has been okay in limited innings but is a pitcher with a checkered history in terms of his effectiveness in the minors and at the big league level.
This is a match made in heaven for a YRFI (Yes Run in First Inning) bet and the odds reflect that as well with how much juice is attached. Cincy and St. Louis have the two BEST rates of YRFIs this season at 68% and 65%, respectively. It just sets up so well...good hitters, mediocre pitchers, and an elite park factor. I'm riding this trend today and banking on some early offense in this game.
Pick: YRFI (-155, DK Sportsbook)
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