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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 15, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 22-24-1, -5.72 units
- Sides: 16-15, -4.95 units
- Totals: 5-9-1, -2.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
- Notes:
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -184
CIN: Luis Castillo | TOR: Hyun-jin Ryu
I'll head to Toronto for our first game of the day as the Reds take on the Blue Jays. The Reds will send Luis Castillo to the mound for his third start of the season, coming into this one 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA. He's due for some progression, with an xFIP of just 4.17 across those two starts. I have him projected for a 3.67 xFIP today along with a 29.64 rating. He'll draw a tough matchup against the Blue Jays, and despite Toronto slightly underperforming against right-handed pitching year, I project them to have a .615 wOBA + ISO and 36.44% hard contact rate. Even if Castillo performs well enough, Cincinnati doesn't have much to back him, with their bullpen coming into this one with a 4.43 xFIP and 19.13 rating, the worst in the Majors.
On the other side of the matchup, the Blue Jays will send Hyun-jin Ryu to the hill. Ryu is making just his fourth start of the season, coming into this one without a decision and a 9.00 ERA. He's been getting quite unlucky this year, given his xFIP standing at 4.00. He'll get a chance to improve that ERA against the Reds today, where I have him projected as having a 3.45 xFIP and a 37.75 rating, giving the Blue Jays the pitching advantage here. The Reds have been relatively hot of late but do struggle against southpaws, ranking among the worst in the league. The Reds have a projected .433 wOBA + ISO and a 28.7% hard contact rate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Blue Jays at -184 right now, some of the best odds you can find at this point. I am willing to take this up to -200, which I can certainly see this line going over. The -184 odds give the Blue Jays an implied 64.79% chance of winning, while my model gives them a 4% value margin with a 68.79% chance of winning. The Blue Jays have dominated the Reds at home, winning six of their last seven at the Rogers Centre. I expect them to make it seven out of eight today.
Pick: Blue Jays Money Line (-184) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -110
SD: Sean Manaea | SF: Jakob Junis
We'll head to the West Coast for our second pick of the day, as the Padres take on the Giants. The Padres will send Sean Manaea to the mound, who comes into this one 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA. His xFIP shows that he's getting slightly unlucky, with that number coming into 3.22. My model has Manaea projected about on par with his season numbers today, projecting a 3.36 xFIP and a 26.33 rating. While the Giants have a projected wOBA + ISO of just .438, they do have a projected 35.88% hard contact rate against Manaea tonight.
On the other side, the Giants will send Jakob Junis to the mound. Junis will be making his third start of the 2022 campaign, coming into this one 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA. While his 3.54 xFIP shows that he's due for regression, my model doesn't see the regression bug hitting him quite so hard. He has a projected 3.20 xFIP and a 37.81 rating, giving San Francisco the starting pitching advantage. The Padres are projecting to a .395 wOBA + ISO, 30% hard contact rate, but will likely keep the ball on the ground, projecting out to a 44.56% ground ball rate, among the lowest on the slate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Giants at -110, good for 52.38% implied odds. My model gives San Francisco a 56.83% chance of winning, so we're getting good value here. The Giants are 1-1 behind Junis while the Padres are 2-5 behind Manaea, losing each of his last four starts. The Giants have won five straight at home, and four straight against left-handed starters. They've also won four straight when the total is set between 7.0-8.5, so I'll take the value on the home team.
Pick: Giants Money Line (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Thursday!
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