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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/17/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, May 16, 2022, for the 14-game 6:10 PM Eastern slate.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 12-21-1 overall on the season, down 3.48 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black. Monday was tough going 0-3 and losing 1.5 units. I can't win it all back, so need to keep staying the course and hope for better outcomes.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -127
SEA: Logan Gilbert | TOR: Jose Berrios
After getting beat on choosing Seattle here, I am coming back to this game today because the odds are in a favorable spot. Logan Gilbert is 4-1 with a 3.33 xFIP and 18.3% K-BB%. Walks are a little high for Gilbert but his strikeout rate is 27.5%. He is a solid pitcher going against a tough lineup in Toronto -- at least on paper.
The other side of the mound is a little different in that Jose Berrios is 2-2 with a 4.80 xFIP and an 8.3% K-BB%, his lowest K-BB% ever. Berrios has upside but he is struggling with his control, he is not striking out as many batters as he used to, and it's a huge red flag.
Seattle has the edge in starting pitching. Relief pitching is close between the teams. Toronto has a bullpen ERA of 4.03 while Seattle's is 3.83. That ranks Seattle No. 18 and Toronto No. 19 both in the bottom half of the league.
Looking at the lines, it does not make sense that Toronto is favored at all. These teams are performing similarly, with Seattle having the starting pitching edge. Going F5 with this bet is something to consider as well, however, I will go the full game here.
Picks: Seattle Moneyline (+118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: CHC -133
PIT: JT Brubaker | CHC: Keegan Thompson
The Pirates have JT Brubaker going on the mound tonight. Brubaker is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 4.36 xFIP. He has allowed 1.19 HR/9 this season and 1.69 HR/9 over the course of his career. His hard-hit allowed percentage this season has been 40.7%. Last night, the Cubs scored nine runs and this is another situation where the Cubs could be in for a lot of scoring. Add into the fact the Pirates have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA (4.28) and we could see some runs.
Keegan Thompson for the Cubs is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA but he has an xFIP of 4.19 this season and 4.54 in his career. This indicates that he has been fortunate and his surface stats such as ERA will over time regress more to his xFIP over the course of the season. What he has going for him is the Pirates have scored the fifth-fewest runs this season, and have the ninth-lowest OBP and the seventh-lowest ISO. That said, even a bad offense in the Major Leagues can hit poor pitching.
Overall neither of these offenses are great, but seven runs feels too low. JT Brubaker has been getting hit hard and allowing runs. The Pirates have backed up their starting pitchers by having one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the game. On the other side, while Keegan Thompson has a low ERA, his xFIP tells a different story. The Pirates easily could score a few runs here as well. Even with the wind blowing slightly in, I can see runs being scored in this game.
Pick: OVER 7 Runs (-115), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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