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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, May 10, 2022, for the seven-game 7:05 PM Eastern slate.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 11-18-1 overall on the season, down 2.33 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black. I went 2-0 on Monday and 1-1 on Tuesday. Hoping to get back into the black on Wednesday!
Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: DET -116
OAK: Zach Logue| DET: Joey Wentz
Oakland faces Detroit in the next game of their series. Zach Logue takes the mound for Oakland. He is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 4.89 xFIP. Joey Wentz will be making his major league debut tonight. In Triple-A, he was 0-1 with a 4.12 ERA and a 3.68 ERA. Logue had a nice start against Minnesota on May 6th. The sample sizes on both of these pitchers are so small that it is difficult to project how they will do.
Bullpen-wise Detroit has the better bullpen with a 2.63 ERA (third-best) vs. 3.32 ERA of Oakland (ninth-best). Both teams are generally in the bottom half to bottom third of the league offensively depending on the metric/stat.
The way I look at this game is on paper these teams are pretty even. It probably is a coin flip here. Would you take a coin flip with better than even money odds? I would and that's why I recommend Oakland in this one.
Pick: Oakland Moneyline (+107), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: ATL -125
BOS: Nathan Eovaldi| ATL: Ian Anderson
In the next game in the series, Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for Boston against Ian Anderson and the Atlanta Braves. Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 2.94 ERA and a 2.90 xFIP. This is noticeably better than his 3.94 xFIP over the course of his whole career. It is an interesting matchup here because Atlanta has the third-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) yet is also second in ISO (.169). This is a true boom-or-bust opportunity where an Eovaldi that's feeling it could shut the team down while on the other hand if he isn't feeling it, he could get worked pretty badly.
Ian Anderson is 3-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 4.67 xFIP. This is worse than his career xFIP of 3.96. In theory, both pitchers are pretty even here, as their career xFIPs are nearly identical. Boston's offense doesn't have a ton of firepower, as they are 26th in ISO (.114) and 28th in runs scored.
Atlanta has a solid bullpen ERA of 3.39 while Boston's is 4.07.
From a total scoring standpoint, Nathan Eovaldi is the key. If he shuts down the Braves, this is a low score. He could do that as the Braves strike out a lot and Eovaldi has an excellent 26.3% strikeout rate. Anderson has not been pitching well, evidenced by his poor xFIP, but is the Boston offense good enough to make him pay for it? They did score nine runs last night.
I would not be surprised to see the final score land right on eight runs. Having the chance to get even money that it doesn't happen is good odds, which is why I made the pick below. If the odds were worse, then I wouldn't recommend it.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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