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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/20/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Wednesday and we have a full slate of games today to look at and then some as Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians are playing a doubleheader! We have 16 games to find some value from, so hopefully it can be a positive day for us!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, April 20, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 4-8 overall on the season, down 0.774 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. Last night was a tough one with much lower-scoring games than anticipated. Also, my game that I had two picks for (Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians) got rained out.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: CLE -134
TOR: Jose Berrios | BOS: Nick Pivetta
This is a matchup between two pitchers that got off to tough starts this year. Jose Berrios is always someone we are so excited to see as he has so much upside, but can't seem to put it together. Nick Pivetta has strikeout upside but often leaks runs. Berrios is 0-0 with an 11.81 ERA thus far. He has a career of 4.20 xFIP, so some positive regression should come closer to his career averages. I am just not so sure it happens this start in a hitters park facing a dangerous team. Nick Pivetta is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and a career 4.11 xFIP. Similar to Berrios, he can look brilliant at times and also struggle at times. At this point in the season, both Boston and Toronto have identical bullpen ERAs (3.17) too.
I really see this game as a toss-up. It makes sense why they are favored, they have a little more upside in their lineup and with their pitcher, but Boston at +120 is a good price to see if we can get an upset.
Picks: Boston Moneyline (+120), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: WAS -129
ARI: Merrill Kelly| WAS: Erick Fedde
We have a matchup between two pitchers pitching better than expected. Merril Kelly is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA while Fedde is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA.
This one isn't too complicated here. Kelly has a career xFIP of 4.34 while Fedde's is 4.46. Kelly's career K-BB% is 13.9% while Fedde's is 8.9%. The edge at starting pitcher has to be Arizona with Kelly.
Digging into the bullpens, Arizona has a bullpen ERA of 4.53, which is No. 25 in the league. Washington has a bullpen ERA of 4.53 as well. Batting, Washington is No. 13 in runs scored on the season while Arizona is last.
It is difficult for me to pick a team in which Fedde is starting that day. I believe Arizona is a good pick at this price because we are getting +116 on a game that is essentially 50-50.
Pick: Arizona Moneyline (+116), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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