RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a tough day yesterday, but there's nothing we can do but take it to the chin and get it back today. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm feeling a little bit more comfortable now in my numbers now that the season has started along, however, I'm always continuing to make tweaks in hopes of creating the most accurate projections. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, April 15, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 5-4-1, -0.92 units
- Sides: 4-2, +0.73 units
- Totals: 1-2-1, -1.65 units
- Notes: We caught a couple of tough breaks last night. The Nationals were able to log three runs in the first inning, but JT Brubaker settled down and the Pirates bullpen was stellar, resulting in the Nationals team total pushing. In the Philly game, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto decided they wanted to ambush Alcantara early, resulting in a run in the top of the first on a Bryce Harper sac fly.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA -120
PHI: Zach Eflin | MIA: Pablo Lopez
I'll go back to this Phillies/Marlins series tonight, with a different angle this time: the over. Tonight, Zach Eflin takes the ball for Philadelphia. Being a Philly fan myself, I've been waiting patiently for Eflin's breakout season, and am still waiting for it to come. Eflin had a solid start to 2022, tossing four shutout innings against Oakland last Sunday. In Eflin's last ten starts, the over has hit in six of them. More importantly, the over has cashed in a whopping eight of Eflin's last ten starts against the Marlins.
Pablo Lopez takes the ball for Miami after a very solid start in San Francisco, tossing five innings of one-run ball while striking out six. While the over has hit in just one of six Pablo Lopez's starts against the Phillies, over bettors have been cashing when Lopez takes the mound, as it's cashed in seven of his last ten.
The Phillies' offense has to break out at some point, and while Lopez isn't the best candidate to make that happen, we don't have to ask too much from them. The over at just 7.5 at -120 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and my model gives the game a 58.43% chance of going over, with a final total of 8.55. I saw that a lot of fellow handicappers on Twitter got burnt on this total last night, so why not run it back and take the value here?
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA +110
HOU: Jake Odorizzi | SEA: Marco Gonzales
For the second play of the night, we'll head out to Seattle for an AL West showdown between the Astros and Mariners. I mentioned a few days back that I feel like the Astros have been underpriced in the first week of the season. After splitting a series down in Arizona, the Astros had yesterday off and now take on the Mariners who are coming off one of the goofiest games in recent memory, a 5-1 victory with winds whipping all over the place.
Jake Odorizzi had a so-so start to his 2022, grabbing a no-decision in four innings of work allowing two runs on six hits, and striking out a pair. The Astros went on to win that game 13-6, and have won six of Odorizzi's last eight starts dating back to August 2021. He's made five starts against the Mariners since joining Houston, and the Astros have won three of his last four against the M's, including each of his starts in Seattle. On the other hand, Marco Gonzales went just two innings in his season debut last week, allowing two runs on six hits. This will be his 11th career start against the Astros, against whom he carries a 1-6 record and 5.48 ERA.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros at just -130 tonight. This gives us implied odds of 56.52%, while my model gives the Astros a 57.71% chance of winning. While the EV spread isn't huge, it's positive, and I believe there are other factors that I've mentioned above that create value in Houston. As I mentioned on Sunday when I recommended the Astros in LA, they ranked first in the MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2021. They also had a day off to travel yesterday, while Seattle had to finish up a series in Chicago where they used some of their top bullpen arms including Drew Steckenrider, Diego Castillo, and Paul Sewald. Home opener or not, I'm taking the value in the 'Stros.
Pick: Astros Money Line (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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