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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 3/31/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022, but bounced back in a major way (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, March 31st, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 0-0-0 (+0 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Marlins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -105
NYM: David Peterson | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
If you're new to these articles from me, you'll learn very quickly that one of my favorite types of MLB bets is NRFI/YRFI bets. We'll look at one of those today, starting out the season in Miami.
The visiting Mets will send David Peterson to the mound, who had an excellent Spring training. Peterson tossed 12 innings in the spring, allowing just one hit. While Peterson had struggled in the opening frame against the Marlins last season, I believe that lineup was more equipped to hit left-handed pitching than their current one. I'll ride Peterson's hot spring into the season, betting on him to toss a clean frame here.
Conversely, the Marlins will send Jesus Luzardo to the mound for this one. Luzardo had one of the better second-half runs of 2022, tossing a 3.03 ERA. He'll look to keep that momentum rolling as he faces a tough Mets lineup. Luzardo made two starts against the Mets in 2022, tossing a clean first in both of them. With all of this considered, I think the first-inning under, or NRFI, is a great play at -130 over at FanDuel.
Pick: First Inning under 0.5 Runs (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.3 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -170
CLE: Hunter Gaddis | SEA: Robbie Ray
We'll head out west for the second game of this set between Cleveland and Seattle. A massive pitching mismatch, I'll be taking a look at the Mariners here.
The visiting Guardians will send Hunter Gaddis to the mound. Gaddis is coming off a 2022 season where he threw just 7.1 innings to the tune of an 18.41 ERA. Now, these were just two spot starts, and Gaddis has had a spring to train with the big league club, but still. I have to project the Mariners to be all over him. Seattle projects to a .331 wOBA against the righty in this one.
On the other side, the home Mariners will send 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to the mound. While Ray did show some regression in his first season in Seattle, he did pitch particularly well against the Guardians. He tossed 13 innings across two games without allowing a run against Cleveland in 2022. The Guardians project an even .300 wOBA against Ray, who is obviously the superior pitcher in this bout.
I'll take a look at the Seattle F5 moneyline in this one, which you can get at -160 on BetMGM. While I wish I could've grabbed this a bit sooner, I still think it's a great value in this spot.
Pick: Mariners F5 Money Line (-160) BetMGM, 1.6 units to win 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow (hopefully)!
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