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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 11/05/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday RotoBallers, it's World Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, November 5th, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 17-6-4 (+6.71 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Astros
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: HOU -148
PHI: Zack Wheeler | HOU: Framber Valdez
We were able to cash the first inning under on Wednesday, and now the Phillies have their backs against the wall as the series arrives back in Houston. As opposed to taking the first inning under today, we'll take a look at the first-inning draw.
The visiting Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) to the mound tonight. Wheeler got roughed up in his first start in Houston back in Game 2, allowing five runs (four earned) across five innings, including three in the first. I do have concerns in terms of his ability to pitch throughout the game, but I'll back him in the first inning here, as he's allowed a first-inning run in just three of 17 starts on the road, and in just four of 31 starts overall.
Conversely, the Astros will send Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA) to the mound this evening. Valdez was nothing short of special in Game 2 of this series, allowing just one earned run across 6.1 innings at home. Framber has been great in the first inning this season, allowing a run in just four of 17 starts at home and in just six of 34 starts overall, including a perfect three of three in the playoffs.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -142, the first inning draw sits at just -140 as I'm typing this. My model gives the first-inning draw a 63.18% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -172. We have a bit of wiggle room here with the draw rather than the under, in case we see something similar to Thursday night's game. Let's hope the Phillies can force a Game 7, as I'd love to see you all tomorrow!
Pick: First Inning Result: Tie (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow (hopefully)!
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