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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/4/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! We're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 4, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 79-82-2, -21.71 units
- Sides: 37-37-1, -12.62 units
- Totals: 41-45-1, -10.67 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -115
CHC: Javier Assad | CIN: Luis Cessa
We finished 1-1 on Sunday, cashing our Phillies play but losing our first-inning under. I'm absolutely stoked to see the Phillies end their 11-year playoff drought, and now I'll take a look at a pair of first-inning under plays tonight.
We'll start off in Cincinnati where the visiting Cubs will send Javier Assad (2-2, 3.62 ERA) to the mound. Assad has been solid in the first inning across his first seven starts, allowing a run in just one of three starts on the road and just two of the seven starts overall. He made just one start against the Reds this season, back on September 9. While he didn't pitch all that well, yielding four runs in 5.1 innings, he didn't allow a run in the first.
Conversely, the Reds will be sending Luis Cessa (4-4, 4.76 ERA) to the mound. While Cessa has been mostly a reliever and/or opener for Cincy this season, he's been good in the first inning when he has opened games. He's allowed just two runs in the opening frame across nine games that he's started, including a perfect 3-0 to the first-inning under while pitching at home. He started the day after Assad's start, on September 8, where he held the Cubs scoreless in the first inning.
I'll head over to DraftKings Sportsbook for this play, where the first-inning under sits at just -120. My model gives the under a 57.55% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -136, giving us solid value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Brewers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIL -105
ARI: Zac Gallen | MIL: Eric Lauer
I'll head out to Milwaukee for the second first-inning under of the day. The Phillies' playoff berth came at the expense of the Brewers, who despite walking off Reyes Moronta and the Dbacks last night, were ultimately eliminated from playoff contention.
The visiting Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen (12-3, 2.46 ERA) to the mound. Gallen has frankly been one of the best pitchers in the National League, if not the entire sport. He's been very good in the first inning as well this season, allowing a run in just two of 14 starts on the road as well as just four of 29 starts overall. He tossed seven scoreless innings against Milwaukee just a month ago back on September 4.
On the other hand, the Brewers will be sending Eric Lauer (10-7, 3.83 ERA) to the mound. Lauer has had an impressive season for Milwaukee and will close the door on his campaign this evening. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of 12 starts at home on the year, and in just six of 28 starts overall. Lauer started a game against Arizona back on September 2, where he allowed just two runs across 6.2 innings, neither of which came in the opening frame.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the first-inning under at -150, a relatively juiced line but a line with value nonetheless. My model gives the first inning under a 62.69% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -168. The Diamondbacks have been a surging team late this season, but have scored in the first just twice in their last ten games. The Brewers, on the other hand, haven't scored in the first inning in any of their last 14 games.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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